Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor in the August 18, 2026 primary with approximately 48 percent of the vote against Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent and other challengers below 11 percent each, producing a margin that aligns with the market's dominant 20–25 percent outcome. Sustained polling leads of 20–40 points throughout the summer, driven by President Trump's early endorsement, overwhelming fundraising superiority exceeding $13 million raised compared to rivals' far lower totals, and consolidation of support from state legislative leaders and party infrastructure established the trajectory well before Election Day. Limited airtime for opponents and voter consolidation among high-propensity Republican primary participants reinforced the result. A recount, successful legal challenge to ballot eligibility or vote tabulation, or delayed certification could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though historical patterns in Florida primaries indicate such adjustments remain rare and narrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDonalds 20–25% 98.4%
Donalds 15–20% 2.7%
Donalds 25–30% 1.4%
Donalds 40%+ <1%
$87,135 Vol.
$87,135 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
1%
Donalds 35–40%
<1%
Donalds 30–35%
1%
Donalds 25–30%
1%
Donalds 20–25%
98%
Donalds 15–20%
3%
Donalds 10–15%
1%
Donalds 5–10%
<1%
Donalds <5%
<1%
Collins wins
<1%
Fishback wins
<1%
Donalds 20–25% 98.4%
Donalds 15–20% 2.7%
Donalds 25–30% 1.4%
Donalds 40%+ <1%
$87,135 Vol.
$87,135 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
$34,848 Vol.
1%
Donalds 35–40%
$15,397 Vol.
<1%
Donalds 30–35%
$7,840 Vol.
1%
Donalds 25–30%
$8,753 Vol.
1%
Donalds 20–25%
$2,213 Vol.
98%
Donalds 15–20%
$3,879 Vol.
3%
Donalds 10–15%
$3,381 Vol.
1%
Donalds 5–10%
$3,330 Vol.
<1%
Donalds <5%
$4,275 Vol.
<1%
Collins wins
$2,193 Vol.
<1%
Fishback wins
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor in the August 18, 2026 primary with approximately 48 percent of the vote against Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent and other challengers below 11 percent each, producing a margin that aligns with the market's dominant 20–25 percent outcome. Sustained polling leads of 20–40 points throughout the summer, driven by President Trump's early endorsement, overwhelming fundraising superiority exceeding $13 million raised compared to rivals' far lower totals, and consolidation of support from state legislative leaders and party infrastructure established the trajectory well before Election Day. Limited airtime for opponents and voter consolidation among high-propensity Republican primary participants reinforced the result. A recount, successful legal challenge to ballot eligibility or vote tabulation, or delayed certification could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though historical patterns in Florida primaries indicate such adjustments remain rare and narrow.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$87,135End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor in the August 18, 2026 primary with approximately 48 percent of the vote against Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent and other challengers below 11 percent each, producing a margin that aligns with the market's dominant 20–25 percent outcome. Sustained polling leads of 20–40 points throughout the summer, driven by President Trump's early endorsement, overwhelming fundraising superiority exceeding $13 million raised compared to rivals' far lower totals, and consolidation of support from state legislative leaders and party infrastructure established the trajectory well before Election Day. Limited airtime for opponents and voter consolidation among high-propensity Republican primary participants reinforced the result. A recount, successful legal challenge to ballot eligibility or vote tabulation, or delayed certification could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though historical patterns in Florida primaries indicate such adjustments remain rare and narrow.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$87,135End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor in the August 18, 2026 primary with approximately 48 percent of the vote against Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent and other challengers below 11 percent each, producing a margin that aligns with the market's dominant 20–25 percent outcome. Sustained polling leads of 20–40 points throughout the summer, driven by President Trump's early endorsement, overwhelming fundraising superiority exceeding $13 million raised compared to rivals' far lower totals, and consolidation of support from state legislative leaders and party infrastructure established the trajectory well before Election Day. Limited airtime for opponents and voter consolidation among high-propensity Republican primary participants reinforced the result. A recount, successful legal challenge to ballot eligibility or vote tabulation, or delayed certification could theoretically shift the final certified margin, though historical patterns in Florida primaries indicate such adjustments remain rare and narrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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