Recent court rulings and polling have highlighted the referendum’s fiscal risks to local governments, driving trader expectations that it will fall short of the 60% approval threshold. A Leon County judge in early August ordered a rewrite of the original ballot language after finding the title and summary “clearly and conclusively defective” and more like a slogan than neutral description; the Attorney General’s revised, plainer wording was accepted by plaintiffs but has not shifted underlying concerns. Polls from the University of North Florida and others show support near or above 60% when framed around homestead relief and core services, but it drops sharply to the mid-40s when voters learn of projected multi-billion-dollar annual revenue losses for counties, cities, and special districts. Opposition from law enforcement groups and local officials over potential cuts to public safety and other services, combined with the measure’s recent legislative origin and lack of dedicated offset funding, has reinforced the current market consensus that passage remains unlikely.