President Donald Trump has privately signaled support for Vice President JD Vance as his preferred 2028 successor, telling donors that “we need to elect JD,” while publicly describing any endorsement decision as premature and continuing to praise Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This mixed messaging sustains trader focus on Vance at 55 percent implied probability alongside Rubio at 24 percent, as the president has polled advisers and weighed both men without committing. Vance’s increased visibility through public appearances and policy work has strengthened his position relative to other Republicans, yet the absence of a formal endorsement and the November 2026 midterms keep the contest open. Multiple lower-probability options reflect uncertainty over timing and Trump’s history of shifting signals before primary season begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJ.D. Vance 55%
Marco Rubio 24%
Donald Trump Jr. 7.5%
Eric Trump 5.3%
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
Nov 6, 2028
J.D. Vance
55%
Marco Rubio
24%
Donald Trump Jr.
8%
Eric Trump
5%
Donald Trump
4%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Elon Musk
1%
Ivanka Trump
1%
Ted Cruz
1%
Ron DeSantis
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%
Thomas Massie
1%
Brian Kemp
1%
Greg Abbott
1%
Byron Donalds
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Glenn Youngkin
1%
Rand Paul
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Tucker Carlson
<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
<1%
J.D. Vance 55%
Marco Rubio 24%
Donald Trump Jr. 7.5%
Eric Trump 5.3%
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
Nov 6, 2028
J.D. Vance
$5,594 Vol.
55%
Marco Rubio
$1,586 Vol.
24%
Donald Trump Jr.
$326 Vol.
8%
Eric Trump
$240 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump
$1,258 Vol.
4%
Vivek Ramaswamy
$242 Vol.
2%
Elon Musk
$240 Vol.
1%
Ivanka Trump
$260 Vol.
1%
Ted Cruz
$231 Vol.
1%
Ron DeSantis
$302 Vol.
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
$245 Vol.
1%
Thomas Massie
$235 Vol.
1%
Brian Kemp
$240 Vol.
1%
Greg Abbott
$235 Vol.
1%
Byron Donalds
$235 Vol.
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$242 Vol.
1%
Glenn Youngkin
$230 Vol.
1%
Rand Paul
$308 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$251 Vol.
<1%
Tucker Carlson
$277 Vol.
<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump has privately signaled support for Vice President JD Vance as his preferred 2028 successor, telling donors that “we need to elect JD,” while publicly describing any endorsement decision as premature and continuing to praise Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This mixed messaging sustains trader focus on Vance at 55 percent implied probability alongside Rubio at 24 percent, as the president has polled advisers and weighed both men without committing. Vance’s increased visibility through public appearances and policy work has strengthened his position relative to other Republicans, yet the absence of a formal endorsement and the November 2026 midterms keep the contest open. Multiple lower-probability options reflect uncertainty over timing and Trump’s history of shifting signals before primary season begins.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$13,082End Date
Nov 6, 2028Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump has privately signaled support for Vice President JD Vance as his preferred 2028 successor, telling donors that “we need to elect JD,” while publicly describing any endorsement decision as premature and continuing to praise Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This mixed messaging sustains trader focus on Vance at 55 percent implied probability alongside Rubio at 24 percent, as the president has polled advisers and weighed both men without committing. Vance’s increased visibility through public appearances and policy work has strengthened his position relative to other Republicans, yet the absence of a formal endorsement and the November 2026 midterms keep the contest open. Multiple lower-probability options reflect uncertainty over timing and Trump’s history of shifting signals before primary season begins.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,082End Date
Nov 6, 2028Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Donald Trump has privately signaled support for Vice President JD Vance as his preferred 2028 successor, telling donors that “we need to elect JD,” while publicly describing any endorsement decision as premature and continuing to praise Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This mixed messaging sustains trader focus on Vance at 55 percent implied probability alongside Rubio at 24 percent, as the president has polled advisers and weighed both men without committing. Vance’s increased visibility through public appearances and policy work has strengthened his position relative to other Republicans, yet the absence of a formal endorsement and the November 2026 midterms keep the contest open. Multiple lower-probability options reflect uncertainty over timing and Trump’s history of shifting signals before primary season begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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