**Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong trader consensus lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in the competitive AZ-06 swing district.** Recent June polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly 2–3 points (e.g., 47–45), consistent with earlier surveys, while both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Mendoza has outraised Ciscomani substantially, with over $7 million raised compared to his approximately $6 million, including strong small-donor support that has helped fund field operations and advertising in the Tucson-anchored district covering parts of Pima, Cochise, and Pinal counties. The seat’s even partisan lean, narrow 2024 presidential margin, and toss-up or lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters reflect its status as a battleground where turnout among independents and suburban voters will be decisive. No major late developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to national conditions and ground-game execution through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-06 House Election Winner
AZ-06 House Election Winner
$10,630 Vol.
$10,630 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
18%
$10,630 Vol.
$10,630 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,889 Vol.
83%
Republican Party
$6,740 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong trader consensus lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in the competitive AZ-06 swing district.**
Recent June polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly 2–3 points (e.g., 47–45), consistent with earlier surveys, while both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Mendoza has outraised Ciscomani substantially, with over $7 million raised compared to his approximately $6 million, including strong small-donor support that has helped fund field operations and advertising in the Tucson-anchored district covering parts of Pima, Cochise, and Pinal counties. The seat’s even partisan lean, narrow 2024 presidential margin, and toss-up or lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters reflect its status as a battleground where turnout among independents and suburban voters will be decisive. No major late developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to national conditions and ground-game execution through November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$10,630End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong trader consensus lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in the competitive AZ-06 swing district.**
Recent June polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly 2–3 points (e.g., 47–45), consistent with earlier surveys, while both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Mendoza has outraised Ciscomani substantially, with over $7 million raised compared to his approximately $6 million, including strong small-donor support that has helped fund field operations and advertising in the Tucson-anchored district covering parts of Pima, Cochise, and Pinal counties. The seat’s even partisan lean, narrow 2024 presidential margin, and toss-up or lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters reflect its status as a battleground where turnout among independents and suburban voters will be decisive. No major late developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to national conditions and ground-game execution through November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,630End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong trader consensus lead over Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani in the competitive AZ-06 swing district.** Recent June polling averages show Mendoza ahead by roughly 2–3 points (e.g., 47–45), consistent with earlier surveys, while both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries. Mendoza has outraised Ciscomani substantially, with over $7 million raised compared to his approximately $6 million, including strong small-donor support that has helped fund field operations and advertising in the Tucson-anchored district covering parts of Pima, Cochise, and Pinal counties. The seat’s even partisan lean, narrow 2024 presidential margin, and toss-up or lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters reflect its status as a battleground where turnout among independents and suburban voters will be decisive. No major late developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the outcome sensitive to national conditions and ground-game execution through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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