Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s R+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his 2024 victory over the same Democratic opponent. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading Jonathan Nez 53% to 42%, reinforcing the Republican advantage in this rural northeastern Arizona seat that includes Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, is focusing on boosting Native American turnout in the rematch, but forecasters rate the race Likely Republican and Crane’s incumbency and primary strength have anchored trader pricing. A Libertarian candidate will also appear on the ballot but is not expected to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,468 Vol.
69%
Democratic Party
$1,154 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s R+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his 2024 victory over the same Democratic opponent. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading Jonathan Nez 53% to 42%, reinforcing the Republican advantage in this rural northeastern Arizona seat that includes Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, is focusing on boosting Native American turnout in the rematch, but forecasters rate the race Likely Republican and Crane’s incumbency and primary strength have anchored trader pricing. A Libertarian candidate will also appear on the ballot but is not expected to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$2,622End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s R+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his 2024 victory over the same Democratic opponent. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading Jonathan Nez 53% to 42%, reinforcing the Republican advantage in this rural northeastern Arizona seat that includes Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, is focusing on boosting Native American turnout in the rematch, but forecasters rate the race Likely Republican and Crane’s incumbency and primary strength have anchored trader pricing. A Libertarian candidate will also appear on the ballot but is not expected to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,622End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s R+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his 2024 victory over the same Democratic opponent. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading Jonathan Nez 53% to 42%, reinforcing the Republican advantage in this rural northeastern Arizona seat that includes Flagstaff, Prescott, and portions of the Navajo Nation. Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, is focusing on boosting Native American turnout in the rematch, but forecasters rate the race Likely Republican and Crane’s incumbency and primary strength have anchored trader pricing. A Libertarian candidate will also appear on the ballot but is not expected to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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