Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district, centered in Philadelphia, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt that underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Brendan Boyle secured unopposed renomination in the May 2026 primary after winning 71.5% in 2024, while Republican Jessica Arriaga advanced as the sole GOP candidate. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than short-term polling shifts. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical base rates for comparable urban districts indicate such reversals remain rare before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-02 House Election Winner
PA-02 House Election Winner
$35,710 Vol.
$35,710 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$35,710 Vol.
$35,710 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,352 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$29,358 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district, centered in Philadelphia, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt that underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Brendan Boyle secured unopposed renomination in the May 2026 primary after winning 71.5% in 2024, while Republican Jessica Arriaga advanced as the sole GOP candidate. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than short-term polling shifts. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical base rates for comparable urban districts indicate such reversals remain rare before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$35,710End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district, centered in Philadelphia, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt that underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Brendan Boyle secured unopposed renomination in the May 2026 primary after winning 71.5% in 2024, while Republican Jessica Arriaga advanced as the sole GOP candidate. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than short-term polling shifts. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical base rates for comparable urban districts indicate such reversals remain rare before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,710End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district, centered in Philadelphia, maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt that underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Brendan Boyle secured unopposed renomination in the May 2026 primary after winning 71.5% in 2024, while Republican Jessica Arriaga advanced as the sole GOP candidate. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than short-term polling shifts. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical base rates for comparable urban districts indicate such reversals remain rare before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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