Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+10 to D+13, majority-Latino demographics, and structural advantages in western Phoenix and surrounding Maricopa County areas. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 2026 primaries, but Grijalva’s fundraising edge—over $2.3 million raised versus roughly $224,000 for Republican Daniel Butierez Sr.—and the district’s voting history reinforce trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting Grijalva, or an extreme national political shift that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan tilt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,775 Vol.
$32,775 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$32,775 Vol.
$32,775 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,795 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$26,980 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+10 to D+13, majority-Latino demographics, and structural advantages in western Phoenix and surrounding Maricopa County areas. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 2026 primaries, but Grijalva’s fundraising edge—over $2.3 million raised versus roughly $224,000 for Republican Daniel Butierez Sr.—and the district’s voting history reinforce trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting Grijalva, or an extreme national political shift that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,775End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+10 to D+13, majority-Latino demographics, and structural advantages in western Phoenix and surrounding Maricopa County areas. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 2026 primaries, but Grijalva’s fundraising edge—over $2.3 million raised versus roughly $224,000 for Republican Daniel Butierez Sr.—and the district’s voting history reinforce trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting Grijalva, or an extreme national political shift that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,775End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed her late father, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+10 to D+13, majority-Latino demographics, and structural advantages in western Phoenix and surrounding Maricopa County areas. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 2026 primaries, but Grijalva’s fundraising edge—over $2.3 million raised versus roughly $224,000 for Republican Daniel Butierez Sr.—and the district’s voting history reinforce trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting Grijalva, or an extreme national political shift that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan tilt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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