Recent UK CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 amid elevated and volatile energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, yet the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in late July with a 6-3 vote. The Monetary Policy Committee views the current restrictive stance as sufficient to contain second-round effects while the labor market loosens and GDP growth remains subdued, consistent with July 2026 projections showing inflation peaking near 2.9% before easing. Market pricing of just a few basis points of tightening for the September 17 decision aligns with economist surveys expecting no move this year, as traders price in the BoE’s wait-and-see approach. An escalation in energy costs or hotter-than-expected core services data ahead of the meeting could still shift the small minority pricing a 25-basis-point hike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in September?
Bank of England decision in September?
No change 97.0%
25 bps increase 3.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$209,455 Vol.
$209,455 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 97.0%
25 bps increase 3.0%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$209,455 Vol.
$209,455 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$13,990 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$17,071 Vol.
1%
No change
$106,417 Vol.
97%
25 bps increase
$58,505 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$13,472 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent UK CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 amid elevated and volatile energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, yet the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in late July with a 6-3 vote. The Monetary Policy Committee views the current restrictive stance as sufficient to contain second-round effects while the labor market loosens and GDP growth remains subdued, consistent with July 2026 projections showing inflation peaking near 2.9% before easing. Market pricing of just a few basis points of tightening for the September 17 decision aligns with economist surveys expecting no move this year, as traders price in the BoE’s wait-and-see approach. An escalation in energy costs or hotter-than-expected core services data ahead of the meeting could still shift the small minority pricing a 25-basis-point hike.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$209,455End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent UK CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 amid elevated and volatile energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, yet the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in late July with a 6-3 vote. The Monetary Policy Committee views the current restrictive stance as sufficient to contain second-round effects while the labor market loosens and GDP growth remains subdued, consistent with July 2026 projections showing inflation peaking near 2.9% before easing. Market pricing of just a few basis points of tightening for the September 17 decision aligns with economist surveys expecting no move this year, as traders price in the BoE’s wait-and-see approach. An escalation in energy costs or hotter-than-expected core services data ahead of the meeting could still shift the small minority pricing a 25-basis-point hike.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$209,455End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 amid elevated and volatile energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, yet the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in late July with a 6-3 vote. The Monetary Policy Committee views the current restrictive stance as sufficient to contain second-round effects while the labor market loosens and GDP growth remains subdued, consistent with July 2026 projections showing inflation peaking near 2.9% before easing. Market pricing of just a few basis points of tightening for the September 17 decision aligns with economist surveys expecting no move this year, as traders price in the BoE’s wait-and-see approach. An escalation in energy costs or hotter-than-expected core services data ahead of the meeting could still shift the small minority pricing a 25-basis-point hike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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