**The "No" outcome at 64.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment that the prosecution has not met its burden in Duane “Keffe D” Davis’s ongoing Las Vegas trial for the 1996 murder of Tupac Shakur.** As of August 29, 2026, the evidentiary phase concluded after just nine days, with prosecutors resting on August 26 after 25 witnesses and the defense following suit the next day. The state’s case centers on Davis’s own prior admissions in interviews, his 2019 memoir *Compton Street Legend*, and recorded jail calls, in which he described procuring the gun used in the drive-by and placing himself in the Cadillac. However, multiple former Las Vegas homicide detectives testified for the defense that key details from those accounts could not be independently verified, with investigations hitting repeated dead ends (including attempts to locate other alleged participants who later died). Davis, now 63, did not take the stand, and his attorneys argued the statements were exaggerated for profit and notoriety rather than factual admissions of guilt. The absence of new physical evidence or corroborating eyewitness testimony tying him directly to the shooting, combined with the rapid trial timeline and emphasis on investigative gaps, has left room for reasonable doubt in the eyes of market participants. Closing arguments begin the following Monday before jury deliberations, making the outcome highly sensitive to how effectively each side frames the reliance on uncorroborated self-incriminating statements versus the broader context of an unsolved hip-hop cold case.