Elon Musk's recent posting cadence, including multiple short periods settling under 40 tweets and weekly totals often landing in the 40-89 range during quieter stretches, underpins trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the three-day window at 44.5% implied probability. With no major political controversies, Tesla launches, or high-stakes announcements expected to accelerate activity, markets price moderate daily output around 13-21 posts as the baseline. Historical volatility from events like policy debates or platform updates explains why 65-89 holds secondary support at 29.5%, while sub-40 remains plausible if engagement stays subdued. Upcoming chart updates and any late-breaking X-related news could shift momentum before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 45%
65-89 30%
<40 19%
90-114 7%
NEW
$12,173 Vol.
NEW
$12,173 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<40
19%
40-64
45%
65-89
30%
90-114
7%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 45%
65-89 30%
<40 19%
90-114 7%
NEW
$12,173 Vol.
NEW
$12,173 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<40
$1,731 Vol.
19%
40-64
$820 Vol.
45%
65-89
$5,062 Vol.
30%
90-114
$1,092 Vol.
7%
115-139
$92 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,522 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$721 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$790 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$713 Vol.
<1%
240+
$113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's recent posting cadence, including multiple short periods settling under 40 tweets and weekly totals often landing in the 40-89 range during quieter stretches, underpins trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the three-day window at 44.5% implied probability. With no major political controversies, Tesla launches, or high-stakes announcements expected to accelerate activity, markets price moderate daily output around 13-21 posts as the baseline. Historical volatility from events like policy debates or platform updates explains why 65-89 holds secondary support at 29.5%, while sub-40 remains plausible if engagement stays subdued. Upcoming chart updates and any late-breaking X-related news could shift momentum before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,173End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's recent posting cadence, including multiple short periods settling under 40 tweets and weekly totals often landing in the 40-89 range during quieter stretches, underpins trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the three-day window at 44.5% implied probability. With no major political controversies, Tesla launches, or high-stakes announcements expected to accelerate activity, markets price moderate daily output around 13-21 posts as the baseline. Historical volatility from events like policy debates or platform updates explains why 65-89 holds secondary support at 29.5%, while sub-40 remains plausible if engagement stays subdued. Upcoming chart updates and any late-breaking X-related news could shift momentum before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$12,173End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's recent posting cadence, including multiple short periods settling under 40 tweets and weekly totals often landing in the 40-89 range during quieter stretches, underpins trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the three-day window at 44.5% implied probability. With no major political controversies, Tesla launches, or high-stakes announcements expected to accelerate activity, markets price moderate daily output around 13-21 posts as the baseline. Historical volatility from events like policy debates or platform updates explains why 65-89 holds secondary support at 29.5%, while sub-40 remains plausible if engagement stays subdued. Upcoming chart updates and any late-breaking X-related news could shift momentum before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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