**Recent moderate posting rhythms and a lack of major news catalysts position the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability for September 7-9, 2026.** Traders have priced in Elon's typical daily volume of roughly 30-50 posts (including replies and quotes) during quieter stretches, as seen in the <40 settlement for the period ending September 7 and other recent bins like 65-89. With the window spanning a weekend and no immediate high-stakes political developments, Tesla product updates, or platform controversies to accelerate replies, activity is expected to stay contained rather than spiking toward 100+ daily. The secondary <40 outcome at 27.5% reflects the possibility of even lighter engagement if focus shifts elsewhere, while higher bins remain discounted absent fresh momentum drivers. Markets like this capture real-time trader assessments of his variable X cadence, which can shift quickly with breaking events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 51%
65-89 22%
<40 20%
90-114 4.6%
$48,529 Vol.
$48,529 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
<40
20%
40-64
51%
65-89
22%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
65-89 22%
<40 20%
90-114 4.6%
$48,529 Vol.
$48,529 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
<40
$17,340 Vol.
20%
40-64
$3,840 Vol.
51%
65-89
$7,684 Vol.
22%
90-114
$5,443 Vol.
5%
115-139
$2,580 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,692 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$3,787 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,407 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,476 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,279 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent moderate posting rhythms and a lack of major news catalysts position the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability for September 7-9, 2026.**
Traders have priced in Elon's typical daily volume of roughly 30-50 posts (including replies and quotes) during quieter stretches, as seen in the <40 settlement for the period ending September 7 and other recent bins like 65-89. With the window spanning a weekend and no immediate high-stakes political developments, Tesla product updates, or platform controversies to accelerate replies, activity is expected to stay contained rather than spiking toward 100+ daily. The secondary <40 outcome at 27.5% reflects the possibility of even lighter engagement if focus shifts elsewhere, while higher bins remain discounted absent fresh momentum drivers. Markets like this capture real-time trader assessments of his variable X cadence, which can shift quickly with breaking events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$48,529End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent moderate posting rhythms and a lack of major news catalysts position the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability for September 7-9, 2026.**
Traders have priced in Elon's typical daily volume of roughly 30-50 posts (including replies and quotes) during quieter stretches, as seen in the <40 settlement for the period ending September 7 and other recent bins like 65-89. With the window spanning a weekend and no immediate high-stakes political developments, Tesla product updates, or platform controversies to accelerate replies, activity is expected to stay contained rather than spiking toward 100+ daily. The secondary <40 outcome at 27.5% reflects the possibility of even lighter engagement if focus shifts elsewhere, while higher bins remain discounted absent fresh momentum drivers. Markets like this capture real-time trader assessments of his variable X cadence, which can shift quickly with breaking events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$48,529End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent moderate posting rhythms and a lack of major news catalysts position the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability for September 7-9, 2026.** Traders have priced in Elon's typical daily volume of roughly 30-50 posts (including replies and quotes) during quieter stretches, as seen in the <40 settlement for the period ending September 7 and other recent bins like 65-89. With the window spanning a weekend and no immediate high-stakes political developments, Tesla product updates, or platform controversies to accelerate replies, activity is expected to stay contained rather than spiking toward 100+ daily. The secondary <40 outcome at 27.5% reflects the possibility of even lighter engagement if focus shifts elsewhere, while higher bins remain discounted absent fresh momentum drivers. Markets like this capture real-time trader assessments of his variable X cadence, which can shift quickly with breaking events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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