**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have settled in the 40-64 range amid a steady cadence of 20-30 posts per day, positioning that bracket as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability.** The just-concluded Sept 8-15 period delivered 186 tweets (roughly 23-26 daily), while shorter trackers show similar moderation without major spikes. Traders appear to price in continued xAI and Grok-related commentary around the wrapping Grok Bot Galaxy event (Sept 15-17), routine Tesla and SpaceX updates, and the absence of an immediate high-volume catalyst such as a Starship launch or political flashpoint before the Sept 22 flight. Historical patterns and the lack of breaking news in the immediate window reinforce expectations of measured rather than elevated volume, though any surprise announcement could quickly shift the distribution toward the 65-89 tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 51%
65-89 27%
<40 16%
90-114 6%
NEW
$14,052 Vol.
NEW
$14,052 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
<40
16%
40-64
51%
65-89
27%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
65-89 27%
<40 16%
90-114 6%
NEW
$14,052 Vol.
NEW
$14,052 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
<40
$3,984 Vol.
16%
40-64
$1,036 Vol.
51%
65-89
$2,939 Vol.
27%
90-114
$1,571 Vol.
6%
115-139
$1,558 Vol.
1%
140-164
$138 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$251 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$1,820 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$440 Vol.
<1%
240+
$315 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 17 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have settled in the 40-64 range amid a steady cadence of 20-30 posts per day, positioning that bracket as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability.**
The just-concluded Sept 8-15 period delivered 186 tweets (roughly 23-26 daily), while shorter trackers show similar moderation without major spikes. Traders appear to price in continued xAI and Grok-related commentary around the wrapping Grok Bot Galaxy event (Sept 15-17), routine Tesla and SpaceX updates, and the absence of an immediate high-volume catalyst such as a Starship launch or political flashpoint before the Sept 22 flight. Historical patterns and the lack of breaking news in the immediate window reinforce expectations of measured rather than elevated volume, though any surprise announcement could quickly shift the distribution toward the 65-89 tier.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 17 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$14,052End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 17 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have settled in the 40-64 range amid a steady cadence of 20-30 posts per day, positioning that bracket as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability.**
The just-concluded Sept 8-15 period delivered 186 tweets (roughly 23-26 daily), while shorter trackers show similar moderation without major spikes. Traders appear to price in continued xAI and Grok-related commentary around the wrapping Grok Bot Galaxy event (Sept 15-17), routine Tesla and SpaceX updates, and the absence of an immediate high-volume catalyst such as a Starship launch or political flashpoint before the Sept 22 flight. Historical patterns and the lack of breaking news in the immediate window reinforce expectations of measured rather than elevated volume, though any surprise announcement could quickly shift the distribution toward the 65-89 tier.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 17 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$14,052End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have settled in the 40-64 range amid a steady cadence of 20-30 posts per day, positioning that bracket as the market favorite at 50.5% implied probability.** The just-concluded Sept 8-15 period delivered 186 tweets (roughly 23-26 daily), while shorter trackers show similar moderation without major spikes. Traders appear to price in continued xAI and Grok-related commentary around the wrapping Grok Bot Galaxy event (Sept 15-17), routine Tesla and SpaceX updates, and the absence of an immediate high-volume catalyst such as a Starship launch or political flashpoint before the Sept 22 flight. Historical patterns and the lack of breaking news in the immediate window reinforce expectations of measured rather than elevated volume, though any surprise announcement could quickly shift the distribution toward the 65-89 tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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