The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 85.5% implied probability stems primarily from its final-season narrative momentum after CBS canceled the series in May 2026. The program earned a record nine Emmy nominations—including Outstanding Variety Series—upon the July 8 announcement, far outpacing prior hauls and signaling strong guild and critic support. As an area award, voters evaluate each nominee independently, and industry predictors such as Variety’s Clayton Davis give Colbert the edge heading into the September 14 ceremony. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with far lower odds, reflecting consistent but less dominant recent campaigns, while Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show remain long shots despite legacy recognition. Final-round voting concluded August 26, leaving little room for late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 8.6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 4.4%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.2%
$92,744 Vol.
$92,744 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
9%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
4%
“Saturday Night Live”
3%
“The Daily Show”
2%
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 8.6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 4.4%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.2%
$92,744 Vol.
$92,744 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$31,402 Vol.
86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$17,774 Vol.
9%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$22,490 Vol.
4%
“Saturday Night Live”
$10,362 Vol.
3%
“The Daily Show”
$10,716 Vol.
2%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 85.5% implied probability stems primarily from its final-season narrative momentum after CBS canceled the series in May 2026. The program earned a record nine Emmy nominations—including Outstanding Variety Series—upon the July 8 announcement, far outpacing prior hauls and signaling strong guild and critic support. As an area award, voters evaluate each nominee independently, and industry predictors such as Variety’s Clayton Davis give Colbert the edge heading into the September 14 ceremony. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with far lower odds, reflecting consistent but less dominant recent campaigns, while Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show remain long shots despite legacy recognition. Final-round voting concluded August 26, leaving little room for late shifts.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$92,744End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 85.5% implied probability stems primarily from its final-season narrative momentum after CBS canceled the series in May 2026. The program earned a record nine Emmy nominations—including Outstanding Variety Series—upon the July 8 announcement, far outpacing prior hauls and signaling strong guild and critic support. As an area award, voters evaluate each nominee independently, and industry predictors such as Variety’s Clayton Davis give Colbert the edge heading into the September 14 ceremony. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with far lower odds, reflecting consistent but less dominant recent campaigns, while Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show remain long shots despite legacy recognition. Final-round voting concluded August 26, leaving little room for late shifts.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$92,744End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 85.5% implied probability stems primarily from its final-season narrative momentum after CBS canceled the series in May 2026. The program earned a record nine Emmy nominations—including Outstanding Variety Series—upon the July 8 announcement, far outpacing prior hauls and signaling strong guild and critic support. As an area award, voters evaluate each nominee independently, and industry predictors such as Variety’s Clayton Davis give Colbert the edge heading into the September 14 ceremony. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with far lower odds, reflecting consistent but less dominant recent campaigns, while Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show remain long shots despite legacy recognition. Final-round voting concluded August 26, leaving little room for late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions