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How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?

icon for How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?

How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?

13 80%

<13 10.0%

14 9%

15 7%

Polymarket
NEW

13 80%

<13 10.0%

14 9%

15 7%

Polymarket
NEW

<13

$3,625 Vol.

12%

13

$249 Vol.

87%

14

$1,087 Vol.

9%

15

$317 Vol.

7%

16+

$110 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX maintained a rapid launch cadence throughout August 2026, driven by frequent Starlink missions, though the August 25 Starlink 10-49 flight from Cape Canaveral marked the final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida as operations shift to Vandenberg and eventual Starship flights. Multiple successful Vandenberg Starlink deployments (including Aug 26’s Starlink 15-22) plus non-Starlink missions such as USSF-366 and Globalstar have kept the monthly total near 12–13, with traders assigning 82% implied probability to exactly 13. The final potential addition is the Aug 30 Falcon Heavy carrying the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope; no further Falcon 9 launches are scheduled before month-end, aligning with the observed slowdown from the Florida pause and typical end-of-month spacing. This positions 13 as the clear market consensus while leaving limited room for variance based on any last-minute scrubs.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$5,388
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX maintained a rapid launch cadence throughout August 2026, driven by frequent Starlink missions, though the August 25 Starlink 10-49 flight from Cape Canaveral marked the final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida as operations shift to Vandenberg and eventual Starship flights. Multiple successful Vandenberg Starlink deployments (including Aug 26’s Starlink 15-22) plus non-Starlink missions such as USSF-366 and Globalstar have kept the monthly total near 12–13, with traders assigning 82% implied probability to exactly 13. The final potential addition is the Aug 30 Falcon Heavy carrying the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope; no further Falcon 9 launches are scheduled before month-end, aligning with the observed slowdown from the Florida pause and typical end-of-month spacing. This positions 13 as the clear market consensus while leaving limited room for variance based on any last-minute scrubs.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$5,388
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13" at 87%, followed by "<13" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?" is "13" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<13" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.