SpaceX maintained a rapid launch cadence throughout August 2026, driven by frequent Starlink missions, though the August 25 Starlink 10-49 flight from Cape Canaveral marked the final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida as operations shift to Vandenberg and eventual Starship flights. Multiple successful Vandenberg Starlink deployments (including Aug 26’s Starlink 15-22) plus non-Starlink missions such as USSF-366 and Globalstar have kept the monthly total near 12–13, with traders assigning 82% implied probability to exactly 13. The final potential addition is the Aug 30 Falcon Heavy carrying the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope; no further Falcon 9 launches are scheduled before month-end, aligning with the observed slowdown from the Florida pause and typical end-of-month spacing. This positions 13 as the clear market consensus while leaving limited room for variance based on any last-minute scrubs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13 80%
<13 10.0%
14 9%
15 7%
<13
12%
13
87%
14
9%
15
7%
16+
2%
13 80%
<13 10.0%
14 9%
15 7%
<13
12%
13
87%
14
9%
15
7%
16+
2%
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX maintained a rapid launch cadence throughout August 2026, driven by frequent Starlink missions, though the August 25 Starlink 10-49 flight from Cape Canaveral marked the final Falcon 9 Starlink launch from Florida as operations shift to Vandenberg and eventual Starship flights. Multiple successful Vandenberg Starlink deployments (including Aug 26’s Starlink 15-22) plus non-Starlink missions such as USSF-366 and Globalstar have kept the monthly total near 12–13, with traders assigning 82% implied probability to exactly 13. The final potential addition is the Aug 30 Falcon Heavy carrying the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope; no further Falcon 9 launches are scheduled before month-end, aligning with the observed slowdown from the Florida pause and typical end-of-month spacing. This positions 13 as the clear market consensus while leaving limited room for variance based on any last-minute scrubs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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