NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program eliminated any 2026 crewed lunar landing attempt, shifting Artemis III to a late-2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration of Orion docking with commercial Human Landing Systems while targeting the first surface mission for Artemis IV in 2028. The successful April 2026 Artemis II flyby validated SLS and Orion but left Starship HLS and Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander in early development, hampered by technical challenges, schedule slips, and a May 2026 New Glenn launchpad explosion. With roughly four months remaining and no alternative crewed descent hardware ready for flight, traders assign near-certainty to "No." While an unforeseen private acceleration or international surprise cannot be entirely ruled out, both would require unprecedented breakthroughs in untested systems.