Incumbent Republican Jim Risch seeks a fourth Senate term in the solidly Republican state of Idaho, where the party has not lost a Senate race since 1974 and Donald Trump carried the state by 36 points in 2024. Risch secured his party's nomination with minimal primary opposition and holds a substantial fundraising advantage. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July 2026, leaving independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative, as the main challenger. Recent polls show Risch ahead by wide margins in most surveys, though Achilles' internal polling has produced narrower results in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the limited window for an independent to overcome Idaho's partisan alignment before the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, but such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 95.6%
Democrat 2.2%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.1%
$32,694 Vol.
$32,694 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
2%
Todd Achilles (I)
1%
Republican 95.6%
Democrat 2.2%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.1%
$32,694 Vol.
$32,694 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$18,148 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$14,372 Vol.
2%
Todd Achilles (I)
$175 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch seeks a fourth Senate term in the solidly Republican state of Idaho, where the party has not lost a Senate race since 1974 and Donald Trump carried the state by 36 points in 2024. Risch secured his party's nomination with minimal primary opposition and holds a substantial fundraising advantage. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July 2026, leaving independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative, as the main challenger. Recent polls show Risch ahead by wide margins in most surveys, though Achilles' internal polling has produced narrower results in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the limited window for an independent to overcome Idaho's partisan alignment before the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, but such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,694End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch seeks a fourth Senate term in the solidly Republican state of Idaho, where the party has not lost a Senate race since 1974 and Donald Trump carried the state by 36 points in 2024. Risch secured his party's nomination with minimal primary opposition and holds a substantial fundraising advantage. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July 2026, leaving independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative, as the main challenger. Recent polls show Risch ahead by wide margins in most surveys, though Achilles' internal polling has produced narrower results in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the limited window for an independent to overcome Idaho's partisan alignment before the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, but such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$32,694End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch seeks a fourth Senate term in the solidly Republican state of Idaho, where the party has not lost a Senate race since 1974 and Donald Trump carried the state by 36 points in 2024. Risch secured his party's nomination with minimal primary opposition and holds a substantial fundraising advantage. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July 2026, leaving independent Todd Achilles, a former state representative, as the main challenger. Recent polls show Risch ahead by wide margins in most surveys, though Achilles' internal polling has produced narrower results in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the limited window for an independent to overcome Idaho's partisan alignment before the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, but such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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