Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, setting back capabilities and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles unaccounted for amid restricted IAEA access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for on-site down-blending under international monitoring, though disputes persist over inspection timelines and bombed sites remain off-limits as of late August. Iranian officials continue to deny weaponization intent while some domestic voices advocate shifting doctrine, yet satellite imagery and reporting show ongoing reconstruction rather than test preparations. Trader consensus reflects the compressed four-month window, verified program setbacks, and diplomatic pressures that would need rapid reversal for a test to occur. Late diplomatic breakdown or leadership decisions could still alter trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$249,002 Vol.
$249,002 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
$249,002 Vol.
$249,002 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, setting back capabilities and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles unaccounted for amid restricted IAEA access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for on-site down-blending under international monitoring, though disputes persist over inspection timelines and bombed sites remain off-limits as of late August. Iranian officials continue to deny weaponization intent while some domestic voices advocate shifting doctrine, yet satellite imagery and reporting show ongoing reconstruction rather than test preparations. Trader consensus reflects the compressed four-month window, verified program setbacks, and diplomatic pressures that would need rapid reversal for a test to occur. Late diplomatic breakdown or leadership decisions could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$249,002End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, setting back capabilities and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles unaccounted for amid restricted IAEA access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for on-site down-blending under international monitoring, though disputes persist over inspection timelines and bombed sites remain off-limits as of late August. Iranian officials continue to deny weaponization intent while some domestic voices advocate shifting doctrine, yet satellite imagery and reporting show ongoing reconstruction rather than test preparations. Trader consensus reflects the compressed four-month window, verified program setbacks, and diplomatic pressures that would need rapid reversal for a test to occur. Late diplomatic breakdown or leadership decisions could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$249,002End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, setting back capabilities and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles unaccounted for amid restricted IAEA access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework calling for on-site down-blending under international monitoring, though disputes persist over inspection timelines and bombed sites remain off-limits as of late August. Iranian officials continue to deny weaponization intent while some domestic voices advocate shifting doctrine, yet satellite imagery and reporting show ongoing reconstruction rather than test preparations. Trader consensus reflects the compressed four-month window, verified program setbacks, and diplomatic pressures that would need rapid reversal for a test to occur. Late diplomatic breakdown or leadership decisions could still alter trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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