Reza Pahlavi remains in exile decades after the 1979 revolution, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities for entry by mid- or end-2026 due to the Islamic Republic's continued territorial control and security operations. US-led strikes in early 2026, including operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded missile and nuclear assets, produced a ceasefire by April but left core regime institutions intact. Pahlavi has advanced transition plans such as the Iran Prosperity Project and held meetings with Western figures, including Canadian opposition leader Pierre Poilievre in August 2026, while urging domestic pressure and rejecting partial deals. Arrests targeting alleged foreign networks in April underscored regime enforcement capacity, and no verified return signals or coordinated uprising enabling safe entry have materialized. Scheduled diaspora events and opposition coordination continue without altering the structural barriers to physical re-entry.