Houthis have conducted sporadic ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone strikes on Israeli territory since resuming operations in late March 2026 amid the broader Iran conflict, often claiming coordination with the Iran-Hezbollah axis and citing support for Gaza or opposition to Israeli actions. Activity peaked in March–April and included a June 8 salvo targeting central Israel, but no confirmed direct strikes on Israeli soil have been reported since. Recent Houthi operations have instead focused on Red Sea shipping interdiction, strikes near Saudi-backed Yemeni ports like Mokha, and naval pressure on Saudi interests, amid renewed clashes in Yemen’s civil war. These shifts, combined with Israeli air defenses and potential retaliation risks, have kept near-term probabilities for qualifying attacks on Israel low in trader assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the Red Sea theater or Iran-related fronts could alter incentives in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHouthi military action against Israel by...?
Houthi military action against Israel by...?
$172,391 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
50%
$172,391 Vol.
August 31
$78,428 Vol.
1%
September 30
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
"Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.
Houthis have conducted sporadic ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone strikes on Israeli territory since resuming operations in late March 2026 amid the broader Iran conflict, often claiming coordination with the Iran-Hezbollah axis and citing support for Gaza or opposition to Israeli actions. Activity peaked in March–April and included a June 8 salvo targeting central Israel, but no confirmed direct strikes on Israeli soil have been reported since. Recent Houthi operations have instead focused on Red Sea shipping interdiction, strikes near Saudi-backed Yemeni ports like Mokha, and naval pressure on Saudi interests, amid renewed clashes in Yemen’s civil war. These shifts, combined with Israeli air defenses and potential retaliation risks, have kept near-term probabilities for qualifying attacks on Israel low in trader assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the Red Sea theater or Iran-related fronts could alter incentives in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
"Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
"Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$172,391End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
"Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.
Houthis have conducted sporadic ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone strikes on Israeli territory since resuming operations in late March 2026 amid the broader Iran conflict, often claiming coordination with the Iran-Hezbollah axis and citing support for Gaza or opposition to Israeli actions. Activity peaked in March–April and included a June 8 salvo targeting central Israel, but no confirmed direct strikes on Israeli soil have been reported since. Recent Houthi operations have instead focused on Red Sea shipping interdiction, strikes near Saudi-backed Yemeni ports like Mokha, and naval pressure on Saudi interests, amid renewed clashes in Yemen’s civil war. These shifts, combined with Israeli air defenses and potential retaliation risks, have kept near-term probabilities for qualifying attacks on Israel low in trader assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the Red Sea theater or Iran-related fronts could alter incentives in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
"Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
"Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.
Volume
$172,391End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Houthis have conducted sporadic ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone strikes on Israeli territory since resuming operations in late March 2026 amid the broader Iran conflict, often claiming coordination with the Iran-Hezbollah axis and citing support for Gaza or opposition to Israeli actions. Activity peaked in March–April and included a June 8 salvo targeting central Israel, but no confirmed direct strikes on Israeli soil have been reported since. Recent Houthi operations have instead focused on Red Sea shipping interdiction, strikes near Saudi-backed Yemeni ports like Mokha, and naval pressure on Saudi interests, amid renewed clashes in Yemen’s civil war. These shifts, combined with Israeli air defenses and potential retaliation risks, have kept near-term probabilities for qualifying attacks on Israel low in trader assessments. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the Red Sea theater or Iran-related fronts could alter incentives in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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