Incumbent Democrat Ilhan Omar secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with over 80% of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from a fragmented GOP field. The district's D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including a projected 54-point general election edge, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though the structural partisan advantage and low Republican baseline make such reversals improbable before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$48,403 Vol.
$48,403 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$48,403 Vol.
$48,403 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,221 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$30,182 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ilhan Omar secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with over 80% of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from a fragmented GOP field. The district's D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including a projected 54-point general election edge, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though the structural partisan advantage and low Republican baseline make such reversals improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$48,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ilhan Omar secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with over 80% of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from a fragmented GOP field. The district's D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including a projected 54-point general election edge, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though the structural partisan advantage and low Republican baseline make such reversals improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ilhan Omar secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026, primary with over 80% of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from a fragmented GOP field. The district's D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including a projected 54-point general election edge, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though the structural partisan advantage and low Republican baseline make such reversals improbable before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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