Maryland’s 5th Congressional District maintains a deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and congressional voting. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than four decades opened an open-seat primary on June 23, 2026, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won with roughly one-third of the vote in a crowded field of over 20 candidates, aided by endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders. Chris Chaffee secured the Republican nomination but faces a structurally limited path in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% Democratic reflects the district’s partisan baseline, established Democratic organizational advantages, and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum since the primaries. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-05 House Election Winner
MD-05 House Election Winner
$18,011 Vol.
$18,011 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$18,011 Vol.
$18,011 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,749 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$9,262 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th Congressional District maintains a deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and congressional voting. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than four decades opened an open-seat primary on June 23, 2026, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won with roughly one-third of the vote in a crowded field of over 20 candidates, aided by endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders. Chris Chaffee secured the Republican nomination but faces a structurally limited path in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% Democratic reflects the district’s partisan baseline, established Democratic organizational advantages, and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum since the primaries. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$18,011End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th Congressional District maintains a deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and congressional voting. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than four decades opened an open-seat primary on June 23, 2026, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won with roughly one-third of the vote in a crowded field of over 20 candidates, aided by endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders. Chris Chaffee secured the Republican nomination but faces a structurally limited path in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% Democratic reflects the district’s partisan baseline, established Democratic organizational advantages, and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum since the primaries. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,011End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 5th Congressional District maintains a deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and congressional voting. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than four decades opened an open-seat primary on June 23, 2026, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won with roughly one-third of the vote in a crowded field of over 20 candidates, aided by endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders. Chris Chaffee secured the Republican nomination but faces a structurally limited path in the general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 94.5% Democratic reflects the district’s partisan baseline, established Democratic organizational advantages, and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum since the primaries. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions