Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District on August 4, 2026, defeating Cori Bush and three other challengers with 59 percent of the primary vote. The district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, historically D+29 or greater and anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Paul Berry. Incumbent performance in 2024 and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure further reinforce positioning. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or turnout collapse, though the district’s structural margin has historically limited such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$35,276 Vol.
$35,276 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
99%
Republican Party
2%
$35,276 Vol.
$35,276 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,487 Vol.
99%
Republican Party
$13,789 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District on August 4, 2026, defeating Cori Bush and three other challengers with 59 percent of the primary vote. The district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, historically D+29 or greater and anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Paul Berry. Incumbent performance in 2024 and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure further reinforce positioning. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or turnout collapse, though the district’s structural margin has historically limited such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$35,276End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District on August 4, 2026, defeating Cori Bush and three other challengers with 59 percent of the primary vote. The district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, historically D+29 or greater and anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Paul Berry. Incumbent performance in 2024 and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure further reinforce positioning. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or turnout collapse, though the district’s structural margin has historically limited such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,276End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District on August 4, 2026, defeating Cori Bush and three other challengers with 59 percent of the primary vote. The district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, historically D+29 or greater and anchored in St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Paul Berry. Incumbent performance in 2024 and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure further reinforce positioning. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or turnout collapse, though the district’s structural margin has historically limited such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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