Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has received consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the open-seat 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Sam Graves’s retirement opened the race, yet the August 4 Republican primary produced nominee Chris Stigall, while Democrat Josh Smead secured his party’s nomination with limited resources. The district’s rural and suburban composition, combined with historical voting patterns, continues to outweigh any national midterm dynamics or candidate-specific variables at this stage. A late scandal, unusually strong Democratic turnout, or sharp national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$40,982 Vol.
$40,982 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$40,982 Vol.
$40,982 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$26,328 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$14,654 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has received consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the open-seat 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Sam Graves’s retirement opened the race, yet the August 4 Republican primary produced nominee Chris Stigall, while Democrat Josh Smead secured his party’s nomination with limited resources. The district’s rural and suburban composition, combined with historical voting patterns, continues to outweigh any national midterm dynamics or candidate-specific variables at this stage. A late scandal, unusually strong Democratic turnout, or sharp national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$40,982End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has received consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the open-seat 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Sam Graves’s retirement opened the race, yet the August 4 Republican primary produced nominee Chris Stigall, while Democrat Josh Smead secured his party’s nomination with limited resources. The district’s rural and suburban composition, combined with historical voting patterns, continues to outweigh any national midterm dynamics or candidate-specific variables at this stage. A late scandal, unusually strong Democratic turnout, or sharp national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,982End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 6th congressional district carries an R+13 Partisan Voter Index and has received consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the open-seat 2026 general election. Longtime incumbent Sam Graves’s retirement opened the race, yet the August 4 Republican primary produced nominee Chris Stigall, while Democrat Josh Smead secured his party’s nomination with limited resources. The district’s rural and suburban composition, combined with historical voting patterns, continues to outweigh any national midterm dynamics or candidate-specific variables at this stage. A late scandal, unusually strong Democratic turnout, or sharp national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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