Skip to main content
icon for Nevada Governor Election: Turnout
Politics·Midterms

Nevada Governor Election: Turnout

icon for Nevada Governor Election: Turnout
Politics·Midterms

Nevada Governor Election: Turnout

1.05M-1.125M 41%

1.125M-1.2M 38%

975K-1.05M 37%

1.2M-1.275M 36%

Polymarket
NEW

1.05M-1.125M 41%

1.125M-1.2M 38%

975K-1.05M 37%

1.2M-1.275M 36%

Polymarket
NEW

<900K

$25 Vol.

32%

900K-975K

$25 Vol.

34%

975K-1.05M

$25 Vol.

37%

1.05M-1.125M

$25 Vol.

41%

1.125M-1.2M

$25 Vol.

38%

1.2M-1.275M

$25 Vol.

36%

1.275M-1.35M

$25 Vol.

30%

1.35M+

$25 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested 2026 Nevada gubernatorial matchup between incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives trader uncertainty around turnout totals near 1.1–1.3 million ballots. Recent polling averages show margins under five points, with some surveys indicating wider Republican leads, while primary participation reached only about 22 percent amid limited competitive down-ballot races. Mail and early voting options, dominant in past cycles, combined with ongoing candidate outreach on issues like taxes, affordability, and data-center policy, support expectations for solid general-election participation typical of competitive statewide contests. Low nonpartisan engagement and historical midterm patterns versus the high 2024 presidential benchmark keep multiple turnout brackets clustered in the low-to-mid 40 percent probability range, with potential separation hinging on late mobilization efforts or shifts in voter enthusiasm before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$199
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested 2026 Nevada gubernatorial matchup between incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, drives trader uncertainty around turnout totals near 1.1–1.3 million ballots. Recent polling averages show margins under five points, with some surveys indicating wider Republican leads, while primary participation reached only about 22 percent amid limited competitive down-ballot races. Mail and early voting options, dominant in past cycles, combined with ongoing candidate outreach on issues like taxes, affordability, and data-center policy, support expectations for solid general-election participation typical of competitive statewide contests. Low nonpartisan engagement and historical midterm patterns versus the high 2024 presidential benchmark keep multiple turnout brackets clustered in the low-to-mid 40 percent probability range, with potential separation hinging on late mobilization efforts or shifts in voter enthusiasm before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$199
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be less than 10,500,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be less than 10,500,000?

43%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be 3,200,000 or more?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be 3,200,000 or more?

48%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?

46%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nevada Governor Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.05M-1.125M" at 41%, followed by "1.125M-1.2M" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Nevada Governor Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Nevada Governor Election: Turnout," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nevada Governor Election: Turnout" is "1.05M-1.125M" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.125M-1.2M" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nevada Governor Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.