Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces write-in Republican Larry Marker in this solidly Democratic state, where Harris carried the presidential vote by roughly 10 points in 2024 and Luján won his 2020 Senate race by 6 points. Primaries concluded in June with Luján securing nomination easily and no major-party Republican qualifying for the November 3 ballot, limiting organized opposition and fundraising on the other side. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting an 11- to 12-point Democratic margin based on fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling. Trader pricing across the listed Democrat margin brackets shows consensus clustering in the mid-to-high teens, driven by New Mexico’s partisan baseline, incumbency advantages, and lack of late-cycle catalysts that could widen or narrow the spread before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 18-21% 25%
Democrat 21%+ 24%
Democrat 15-18% 19%
Democrat 12-15% 16.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 3%+
2%
Republican 0-3%
1%
Democrat 0-3%
3%
Democrat 3-6%
3%
Democrat 6-9%
3%
Democrat 9-12%
5%
Democrat 12-15%
16%
Democrat 15-18%
19%
Democrat 18-21%
25%
Democrat 21%+
24%
Democrat 18-21% 25%
Democrat 21%+ 24%
Democrat 15-18% 19%
Democrat 12-15% 16.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 3%+
$321 Vol.
2%
Republican 0-3%
$240 Vol.
1%
Democrat 0-3%
$123 Vol.
3%
Democrat 3-6%
$250 Vol.
3%
Democrat 6-9%
$143 Vol.
3%
Democrat 9-12%
$163 Vol.
5%
Democrat 12-15%
$323 Vol.
16%
Democrat 15-18%
$151 Vol.
19%
Democrat 18-21%
$411 Vol.
25%
Democrat 21%+
$2,461 Vol.
24%
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces write-in Republican Larry Marker in this solidly Democratic state, where Harris carried the presidential vote by roughly 10 points in 2024 and Luján won his 2020 Senate race by 6 points. Primaries concluded in June with Luján securing nomination easily and no major-party Republican qualifying for the November 3 ballot, limiting organized opposition and fundraising on the other side. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting an 11- to 12-point Democratic margin based on fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling. Trader pricing across the listed Democrat margin brackets shows consensus clustering in the mid-to-high teens, driven by New Mexico’s partisan baseline, incumbency advantages, and lack of late-cycle catalysts that could widen or narrow the spread before Election Day.
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$4,587End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces write-in Republican Larry Marker in this solidly Democratic state, where Harris carried the presidential vote by roughly 10 points in 2024 and Luján won his 2020 Senate race by 6 points. Primaries concluded in June with Luján securing nomination easily and no major-party Republican qualifying for the November 3 ballot, limiting organized opposition and fundraising on the other side. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting an 11- to 12-point Democratic margin based on fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling. Trader pricing across the listed Democrat margin brackets shows consensus clustering in the mid-to-high teens, driven by New Mexico’s partisan baseline, incumbency advantages, and lack of late-cycle catalysts that could widen or narrow the spread before Election Day.
The 2026 New Mexico Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Mexico Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,587End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces write-in Republican Larry Marker in this solidly Democratic state, where Harris carried the presidential vote by roughly 10 points in 2024 and Luján won his 2020 Senate race by 6 points. Primaries concluded in June with Luján securing nomination easily and no major-party Republican qualifying for the November 3 ballot, limiting organized opposition and fundraising on the other side. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, with models projecting an 11- to 12-point Democratic margin based on fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling. Trader pricing across the listed Democrat margin brackets shows consensus clustering in the mid-to-high teens, driven by New Mexico’s partisan baseline, incumbency advantages, and lack of late-cycle catalysts that could widen or narrow the spread before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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