Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino faces Democrat Patrick Halpin in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 2nd congressional district. The race carries a Republican lean, reflected in Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other ratings labeling it Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Garbarino, who won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin, advanced unopposed through the canceled June 23 Republican primary, while Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, cleared a similarly uncontested Democratic primary. Trader consensus at 87% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including the incumbent’s established position in a suburban Long Island district and the absence of late-cycle polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. The November timeline leaves room for broader midterm dynamics to influence turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-02 House Election Winner
NY-02 House Election Winner
$17,563 Vol.
$17,563 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
14%
$17,563 Vol.
$17,563 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$7,102 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$10,461 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino faces Democrat Patrick Halpin in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 2nd congressional district. The race carries a Republican lean, reflected in Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other ratings labeling it Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Garbarino, who won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin, advanced unopposed through the canceled June 23 Republican primary, while Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, cleared a similarly uncontested Democratic primary. Trader consensus at 87% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including the incumbent’s established position in a suburban Long Island district and the absence of late-cycle polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. The November timeline leaves room for broader midterm dynamics to influence turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$17,563End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino faces Democrat Patrick Halpin in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 2nd congressional district. The race carries a Republican lean, reflected in Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other ratings labeling it Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Garbarino, who won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin, advanced unopposed through the canceled June 23 Republican primary, while Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, cleared a similarly uncontested Democratic primary. Trader consensus at 87% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including the incumbent’s established position in a suburban Long Island district and the absence of late-cycle polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. The November timeline leaves room for broader midterm dynamics to influence turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,563End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino faces Democrat Patrick Halpin in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 2nd congressional district. The race carries a Republican lean, reflected in Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other ratings labeling it Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+6 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Garbarino, who won reelection in 2024 by a double-digit margin, advanced unopposed through the canceled June 23 Republican primary, while Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive, cleared a similarly uncontested Democratic primary. Trader consensus at 87% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including the incumbent’s established position in a suburban Long Island district and the absence of late-cycle polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. The November timeline leaves room for broader midterm dynamics to influence turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions