**Paul Tonko, the Democratic incumbent, holds a strong position in New York’s 20th Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, with Ralph Ambrosio as the Republican nominee.** Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries in the Capital Region district (D+8 Cook PVI), which includes Albany, Schenectady, and parts of surrounding counties. Tonko’s established record and substantial fundraising edge support expectations of a comfortable Democratic margin, consistent with his prior victories in the low-to-mid 20-point range. The spread across margin brackets in prediction markets reflects uncertainty over turnout, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that could compress or expand the final gap. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent campaign developments or controversies keep probabilities distributed rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 40%+ 38%
Democrat 30-35% 37%
Democrat 15-20% 37%
Democrat 20-25% 33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 40%+
38%
Democrat 35-40%
21%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 25-30%
22%
Democrat 20-25%
33%
Democrat 15-20%
37%
Democrat 10-15%
31%
Democrat 0-10%
26%
Republican Wins
7%
Democrat 40%+ 38%
Democrat 30-35% 37%
Democrat 15-20% 37%
Democrat 20-25% 33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 40%+
$19 Vol.
38%
Democrat 35-40%
$19 Vol.
21%
Democrat 30-35%
$19 Vol.
37%
Democrat 25-30%
$19 Vol.
22%
Democrat 20-25%
$19 Vol.
33%
Democrat 15-20%
$19 Vol.
37%
Democrat 10-15%
$19 Vol.
31%
Democrat 0-10%
$74 Vol.
26%
Republican Wins
$47 Vol.
7%
The 2026 NY-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Paul Tonko, the Democratic incumbent, holds a strong position in New York’s 20th Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, with Ralph Ambrosio as the Republican nominee.** Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries in the Capital Region district (D+8 Cook PVI), which includes Albany, Schenectady, and parts of surrounding counties. Tonko’s established record and substantial fundraising edge support expectations of a comfortable Democratic margin, consistent with his prior victories in the low-to-mid 20-point range. The spread across margin brackets in prediction markets reflects uncertainty over turnout, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that could compress or expand the final gap. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent campaign developments or controversies keep probabilities distributed rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
The 2026 NY-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$254End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Paul Tonko, the Democratic incumbent, holds a strong position in New York’s 20th Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, with Ralph Ambrosio as the Republican nominee.** Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries in the Capital Region district (D+8 Cook PVI), which includes Albany, Schenectady, and parts of surrounding counties. Tonko’s established record and substantial fundraising edge support expectations of a comfortable Democratic margin, consistent with his prior victories in the low-to-mid 20-point range. The spread across margin brackets in prediction markets reflects uncertainty over turnout, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that could compress or expand the final gap. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent campaign developments or controversies keep probabilities distributed rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
The 2026 NY-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$254End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Paul Tonko, the Democratic incumbent, holds a strong position in New York’s 20th Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, with Ralph Ambrosio as the Republican nominee.** Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries in the Capital Region district (D+8 Cook PVI), which includes Albany, Schenectady, and parts of surrounding counties. Tonko’s established record and substantial fundraising edge support expectations of a comfortable Democratic margin, consistent with his prior victories in the low-to-mid 20-point range. The spread across margin brackets in prediction markets reflects uncertainty over turnout, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and any late-cycle shifts in voter sentiment that could compress or expand the final gap. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent campaign developments or controversies keep probabilities distributed rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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