OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run rates surpassing $40 billion amid surging demand for its models and ChatGPT subscriptions, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor, underpins the 52.1% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, reaffirmed by an August tender offer, establishes a high private benchmark that public investors are expected to exceed given AI sector multiples. CFO Sarah Friar’s internal guidance favoring a 2027 listing over a late-2026 debut further supports elevated pricing by allowing additional growth before the IPO, though substantial infrastructure losses and market reception risks remain key variables priced into the distribution. Trader consensus reflects capital-at-risk assessment of these fundamentals versus execution hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 52.2%
1T–1.25T 15.9%
1.25T–1.5T 15%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 9.4%
$163,314 Vol.
$163,314 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
6%
1T–1.25T
16%
1.25T–1.5T
15%
1.5T+
52%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
9%
1.5T+ 52.2%
1T–1.25T 15.9%
1.25T–1.5T 15%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 9.4%
$163,314 Vol.
$163,314 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$11,921 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$16,478 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$22,098 Vol.
6%
1T–1.25T
$21,870 Vol.
16%
1.25T–1.5T
$12,928 Vol.
15%
1.5T+
$41,578 Vol.
52%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$36,441 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run rates surpassing $40 billion amid surging demand for its models and ChatGPT subscriptions, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor, underpins the 52.1% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, reaffirmed by an August tender offer, establishes a high private benchmark that public investors are expected to exceed given AI sector multiples. CFO Sarah Friar’s internal guidance favoring a 2027 listing over a late-2026 debut further supports elevated pricing by allowing additional growth before the IPO, though substantial infrastructure losses and market reception risks remain key variables priced into the distribution. Trader consensus reflects capital-at-risk assessment of these fundamentals versus execution hurdles.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$163,314End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run rates surpassing $40 billion amid surging demand for its models and ChatGPT subscriptions, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor, underpins the 52.1% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, reaffirmed by an August tender offer, establishes a high private benchmark that public investors are expected to exceed given AI sector multiples. CFO Sarah Friar’s internal guidance favoring a 2027 listing over a late-2026 debut further supports elevated pricing by allowing additional growth before the IPO, though substantial infrastructure losses and market reception risks remain key variables priced into the distribution. Trader consensus reflects capital-at-risk assessment of these fundamentals versus execution hurdles.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$163,314End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory, with annualized run rates surpassing $40 billion amid surging demand for its models and ChatGPT subscriptions, combined with CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation floor, underpins the 52.1% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, reaffirmed by an August tender offer, establishes a high private benchmark that public investors are expected to exceed given AI sector multiples. CFO Sarah Friar’s internal guidance favoring a 2027 listing over a late-2026 debut further supports elevated pricing by allowing additional growth before the IPO, though substantial infrastructure losses and market reception risks remain key variables priced into the distribution. Trader consensus reflects capital-at-risk assessment of these fundamentals versus execution hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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