The Odyssey leads trader sentiment at 26.5% implied probability in this early 2027 Oscars cycle, buoyed by Christopher Nolan’s July 2026 release and its prestige adaptation of Homer’s epic, following the director’s recent awards success and generating strong Academy screening buzz. The Black Ball sits close behind at 25.5%, reflecting solid positioning from its source material and campaign momentum, while The Invite at 21.5% benefits from emerging visibility. Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary trail in the single digits amid competition and limited late-summer updates. With no guild or precursor results yet, the tight spread among top contenders underscores the category’s typical volatility, where critical reception, WGA nods, and final cut screenings in the coming months will likely sharpen differentiation before nominations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Odyssey 27%
The Black Ball 26%
The Invite 22%
Project Hail Mary 7.6%
$17,547 Vol.
$17,547 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Odyssey
27%
The Black Ball
26%
The Invite
22%
Project Hail Mary
8%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
7%
Wildwood
8%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Ink
5%
Dune: Part Three
4%
Clarissa
2%
Cry to Heaven
1%
All of a Sudden
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
Saturn Return
1%
The Whisper Man
<1%
The Odyssey 27%
The Black Ball 26%
The Invite 22%
Project Hail Mary 7.6%
$17,547 Vol.
$17,547 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Odyssey
$1,492 Vol.
27%
The Black Ball
$9,338 Vol.
26%
The Invite
$2,662 Vol.
22%
Project Hail Mary
$449 Vol.
8%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$246 Vol.
7%
Wildwood
$509 Vol.
8%
The Social Reckoning
$232 Vol.
5%
Ink
$829 Vol.
5%
Dune: Part Three
$393 Vol.
4%
Clarissa
$162 Vol.
2%
Cry to Heaven
$201 Vol.
1%
All of a Sudden
$470 Vol.
1%
Toy Story 5
$227 Vol.
1%
Saturn Return
$175 Vol.
1%
The Whisper Man
$162 Vol.
<1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Odyssey leads trader sentiment at 26.5% implied probability in this early 2027 Oscars cycle, buoyed by Christopher Nolan’s July 2026 release and its prestige adaptation of Homer’s epic, following the director’s recent awards success and generating strong Academy screening buzz. The Black Ball sits close behind at 25.5%, reflecting solid positioning from its source material and campaign momentum, while The Invite at 21.5% benefits from emerging visibility. Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary trail in the single digits amid competition and limited late-summer updates. With no guild or precursor results yet, the tight spread among top contenders underscores the category’s typical volatility, where critical reception, WGA nods, and final cut screenings in the coming months will likely sharpen differentiation before nominations.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,547End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Odyssey leads trader sentiment at 26.5% implied probability in this early 2027 Oscars cycle, buoyed by Christopher Nolan’s July 2026 release and its prestige adaptation of Homer’s epic, following the director’s recent awards success and generating strong Academy screening buzz. The Black Ball sits close behind at 25.5%, reflecting solid positioning from its source material and campaign momentum, while The Invite at 21.5% benefits from emerging visibility. Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary trail in the single digits amid competition and limited late-summer updates. With no guild or precursor results yet, the tight spread among top contenders underscores the category’s typical volatility, where critical reception, WGA nods, and final cut screenings in the coming months will likely sharpen differentiation before nominations.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,547End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Odyssey leads trader sentiment at 26.5% implied probability in this early 2027 Oscars cycle, buoyed by Christopher Nolan’s July 2026 release and its prestige adaptation of Homer’s epic, following the director’s recent awards success and generating strong Academy screening buzz. The Black Ball sits close behind at 25.5%, reflecting solid positioning from its source material and campaign momentum, while The Invite at 21.5% benefits from emerging visibility. Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary trail in the single digits amid competition and limited late-summer updates. With no guild or precursor results yet, the tight spread among top contenders underscores the category’s typical volatility, where critical reception, WGA nods, and final cut screenings in the coming months will likely sharpen differentiation before nominations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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