Tarsier Pharma’s 96.6% market-implied odds of no IPO before September 2026 reflect repeated delays following its April 2026 F-1 filing and May–July amendments targeting a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. Multiple F-1/A updates through mid-July without a pricing date or effective registration underscore the stalled process for this zero-revenue Phase 3 ocular biotech, consistent with historical base rates for delayed or withdrawn micro-cap offerings amid limited institutional demand. With resolution set for August 31, 2026, the compressed timeline leaves scant room for completion. A sudden last-minute pricing window or unexpected anchor investor could still shift odds, though both appear low-probability given the absence of recent progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO before September 2026 96.6%
$300M-$350M <1%
<$250M <1%
$350M-$400M <1%
$17,975 Vol.
$17,975 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
1%
$250M-$300M
<1%
$300M-$350M
1%
$350M-$400M
<1%
$400M-$450M
<1%
>$450M
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
97%
No IPO before September 2026 96.6%
$300M-$350M <1%
<$250M <1%
$350M-$400M <1%
$17,975 Vol.
$17,975 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
$1,152 Vol.
1%
$250M-$300M
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
$300M-$350M
$1,642 Vol.
1%
$350M-$400M
$837 Vol.
<1%
$400M-$450M
$629 Vol.
<1%
>$450M
$1,068 Vol.
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
$11,534 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma’s 96.6% market-implied odds of no IPO before September 2026 reflect repeated delays following its April 2026 F-1 filing and May–July amendments targeting a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. Multiple F-1/A updates through mid-July without a pricing date or effective registration underscore the stalled process for this zero-revenue Phase 3 ocular biotech, consistent with historical base rates for delayed or withdrawn micro-cap offerings amid limited institutional demand. With resolution set for August 31, 2026, the compressed timeline leaves scant room for completion. A sudden last-minute pricing window or unexpected anchor investor could still shift odds, though both appear low-probability given the absence of recent progress.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Volume
$17,975End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma’s 96.6% market-implied odds of no IPO before September 2026 reflect repeated delays following its April 2026 F-1 filing and May–July amendments targeting a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. Multiple F-1/A updates through mid-July without a pricing date or effective registration underscore the stalled process for this zero-revenue Phase 3 ocular biotech, consistent with historical base rates for delayed or withdrawn micro-cap offerings amid limited institutional demand. With resolution set for August 31, 2026, the compressed timeline leaves scant room for completion. A sudden last-minute pricing window or unexpected anchor investor could still shift odds, though both appear low-probability given the absence of recent progress.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$17,975End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarsier Pharma’s 96.6% market-implied odds of no IPO before September 2026 reflect repeated delays following its April 2026 F-1 filing and May–July amendments targeting a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. Multiple F-1/A updates through mid-July without a pricing date or effective registration underscore the stalled process for this zero-revenue Phase 3 ocular biotech, consistent with historical base rates for delayed or withdrawn micro-cap offerings amid limited institutional demand. With resolution set for August 31, 2026, the compressed timeline leaves scant room for completion. A sudden last-minute pricing window or unexpected anchor investor could still shift odds, though both appear low-probability given the absence of recent progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions