Alibaba currently leads market-implied odds for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its Qwen3.7-Max and related open-weight releases that have posted competitive Elo gains in math subcategories amid rapid iteration from Chinese labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash updates—both showing measurable lifts in chain-of-thought math performance and category rankings—sit close behind, creating a tight three-way contest where small leaderboard movements could reorder the labs. Z.ai’s GLM series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and other domestic players add further pressure through cost-efficient scaling and benchmark saturation on problems like AIME and FrontierMath variants. Traders appear focused on the next two months of model drops, with any major Anthropic or OpenAI reasoning harness advance likely to compress the gap for third.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Alibaba 34%
OpenAI 22%
Google 20%
Z.ai 7.8%
$25,639 Vol.
$25,639 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
34%
OpenAI
22%
20%
Z.ai
8%
Nvidia
6%
Meituan
4%
Moonshot
2%
Anthropic
2%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba 34%
OpenAI 22%
Google 20%
Z.ai 7.8%
$25,639 Vol.
$25,639 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
$9,140 Vol.
34%
OpenAI
$848 Vol.
22%
$8,283 Vol.
20%
Z.ai
$700 Vol.
8%
Nvidia
$616 Vol.
6%
Meituan
$778 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$551 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$368 Vol.
2%
Meta
$347 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$412 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$348 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$389 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$347 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$364 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$414 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$399 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$431 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$302 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$271 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$329 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba currently leads market-implied odds for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its Qwen3.7-Max and related open-weight releases that have posted competitive Elo gains in math subcategories amid rapid iteration from Chinese labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash updates—both showing measurable lifts in chain-of-thought math performance and category rankings—sit close behind, creating a tight three-way contest where small leaderboard movements could reorder the labs. Z.ai’s GLM series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and other domestic players add further pressure through cost-efficient scaling and benchmark saturation on problems like AIME and FrontierMath variants. Traders appear focused on the next two months of model drops, with any major Anthropic or OpenAI reasoning harness advance likely to compress the gap for third.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$25,639End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba currently leads market-implied odds for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its Qwen3.7-Max and related open-weight releases that have posted competitive Elo gains in math subcategories amid rapid iteration from Chinese labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash updates—both showing measurable lifts in chain-of-thought math performance and category rankings—sit close behind, creating a tight three-way contest where small leaderboard movements could reorder the labs. Z.ai’s GLM series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and other domestic players add further pressure through cost-efficient scaling and benchmark saturation on problems like AIME and FrontierMath variants. Traders appear focused on the next two months of model drops, with any major Anthropic or OpenAI reasoning harness advance likely to compress the gap for third.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,639End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba currently leads market-implied odds for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its Qwen3.7-Max and related open-weight releases that have posted competitive Elo gains in math subcategories amid rapid iteration from Chinese labs. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash updates—both showing measurable lifts in chain-of-thought math performance and category rankings—sit close behind, creating a tight three-way contest where small leaderboard movements could reorder the labs. Z.ai’s GLM series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and other domestic players add further pressure through cost-efficient scaling and benchmark saturation on problems like AIME and FrontierMath variants. Traders appear focused on the next two months of model drops, with any major Anthropic or OpenAI reasoning harness advance likely to compress the gap for third.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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