Alibaba’s strong positioning on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, where its Qwen3 series models have posted competitive Elo scores around 1490 and earlier peaks as high as third in the category, drives the 87% market-implied probability for third place among labs by August 31. Anthropic’s Claude variants continue to dominate the top math spots through consistent performance on competition-style problems and human votes, while Google’s Gemini models occupy several mid-tier ranks; Alibaba’s consistent releases and math-focused optimizations have kept it ahead of Moonshot, Z.ai, and others in lab-level aggregation. With resolution days away, limited new model drops in the final week reinforce trader consensus around Alibaba’s current trajectory rather than sudden shifts from lower-probability contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 87%
Google 4.3%
Moonshot 1.2%
OpenAI 1.1%
$64,726 Vol.
$64,726 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
87%
4%
Moonshot
8%
OpenAI
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Bytedance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba 87%
Google 4.3%
Moonshot 1.2%
OpenAI 1.1%
$64,726 Vol.
$64,726 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
$20,312 Vol.
87%
$14,830 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$2,115 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$6,387 Vol.
1%
Meta
$3,267 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,786 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$1,582 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$904 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$909 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,931 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,308 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,386 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$578 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$730 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$790 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$579 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,059 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,372 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s strong positioning on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, where its Qwen3 series models have posted competitive Elo scores around 1490 and earlier peaks as high as third in the category, drives the 87% market-implied probability for third place among labs by August 31. Anthropic’s Claude variants continue to dominate the top math spots through consistent performance on competition-style problems and human votes, while Google’s Gemini models occupy several mid-tier ranks; Alibaba’s consistent releases and math-focused optimizations have kept it ahead of Moonshot, Z.ai, and others in lab-level aggregation. With resolution days away, limited new model drops in the final week reinforce trader consensus around Alibaba’s current trajectory rather than sudden shifts from lower-probability contenders.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$64,726End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s strong positioning on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, where its Qwen3 series models have posted competitive Elo scores around 1490 and earlier peaks as high as third in the category, drives the 87% market-implied probability for third place among labs by August 31. Anthropic’s Claude variants continue to dominate the top math spots through consistent performance on competition-style problems and human votes, while Google’s Gemini models occupy several mid-tier ranks; Alibaba’s consistent releases and math-focused optimizations have kept it ahead of Moonshot, Z.ai, and others in lab-level aggregation. With resolution days away, limited new model drops in the final week reinforce trader consensus around Alibaba’s current trajectory rather than sudden shifts from lower-probability contenders.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$64,726End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba’s strong positioning on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, where its Qwen3 series models have posted competitive Elo scores around 1490 and earlier peaks as high as third in the category, drives the 87% market-implied probability for third place among labs by August 31. Anthropic’s Claude variants continue to dominate the top math spots through consistent performance on competition-style problems and human votes, while Google’s Gemini models occupy several mid-tier ranks; Alibaba’s consistent releases and math-focused optimizations have kept it ahead of Moonshot, Z.ai, and others in lab-level aggregation. With resolution days away, limited new model drops in the final week reinforce trader consensus around Alibaba’s current trajectory rather than sudden shifts from lower-probability contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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