Trump's approval rating has stabilized near historic lows for his second term, with recent aggregators showing roughly 38% approve and 59% disapprove amid persistent economic dissatisfaction, including concerns over inflation, tariffs, and cost of living. The closely balanced 50% implied probability on a weekly shift reflects limited immediate catalysts, as steady negative trends from the Iran conflict and midterm positioning have already been priced in by traders. Small movements could hinge on upcoming economic indicators, any new diplomatic or military developments, congressional activity, or polling releases within the resolution window, though structural partisan divides and independent voter sentiment continue to anchor the overall trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
Up
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 11, 2026, than on September 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trump's approval rating has stabilized near historic lows for his second term, with recent aggregators showing roughly 38% approve and 59% disapprove amid persistent economic dissatisfaction, including concerns over inflation, tariffs, and cost of living. The closely balanced 50% implied probability on a weekly shift reflects limited immediate catalysts, as steady negative trends from the Iran conflict and midterm positioning have already been priced in by traders. Small movements could hinge on upcoming economic indicators, any new diplomatic or military developments, congressional activity, or polling releases within the resolution window, though structural partisan divides and independent voter sentiment continue to anchor the overall trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 11, 2026, than on September 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 11, 2026, than on September 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trump's approval rating has stabilized near historic lows for his second term, with recent aggregators showing roughly 38% approve and 59% disapprove amid persistent economic dissatisfaction, including concerns over inflation, tariffs, and cost of living. The closely balanced 50% implied probability on a weekly shift reflects limited immediate catalysts, as steady negative trends from the Iran conflict and midterm positioning have already been priced in by traders. Small movements could hinge on upcoming economic indicators, any new diplomatic or military developments, congressional activity, or polling releases within the resolution window, though structural partisan divides and independent voter sentiment continue to anchor the overall trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 11, 2026, than on September 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's approval rating has stabilized near historic lows for his second term, with recent aggregators showing roughly 38% approve and 59% disapprove amid persistent economic dissatisfaction, including concerns over inflation, tariffs, and cost of living. The closely balanced 50% implied probability on a weekly shift reflects limited immediate catalysts, as steady negative trends from the Iran conflict and midterm positioning have already been priced in by traders. Small movements could hinge on upcoming economic indicators, any new diplomatic or military developments, congressional activity, or polling releases within the resolution window, though structural partisan divides and independent voter sentiment continue to anchor the overall trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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