Trilateral US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk or long-term security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained on pause since US-Israel operations against Iran in late February, with US officials later describing prior efforts as unfruitful. Russia has repeatedly rejected proposals to freeze the conflict along current lines or resume talks without achieving its stated objectives, while continuing military operations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has signaled openness to compromises and direct engagement, but no breakthrough has occurred amid these persistent gaps. With roughly four months left before 2027, the absence of resumed high-level diplomacy or shifts in Russian demands underpins trader consensus that a signed peace deal is unlikely in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$2,610,357 Vol.
$2,610,357 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
13% chance
$2,610,357 Vol.
$2,610,357 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk or long-term security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained on pause since US-Israel operations against Iran in late February, with US officials later describing prior efforts as unfruitful. Russia has repeatedly rejected proposals to freeze the conflict along current lines or resume talks without achieving its stated objectives, while continuing military operations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has signaled openness to compromises and direct engagement, but no breakthrough has occurred amid these persistent gaps. With roughly four months left before 2027, the absence of resumed high-level diplomacy or shifts in Russian demands underpins trader consensus that a signed peace deal is unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,610,357End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk or long-term security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained on pause since US-Israel operations against Iran in late February, with US officials later describing prior efforts as unfruitful. Russia has repeatedly rejected proposals to freeze the conflict along current lines or resume talks without achieving its stated objectives, while continuing military operations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has signaled openness to compromises and direct engagement, but no breakthrough has occurred amid these persistent gaps. With roughly four months left before 2027, the absence of resumed high-level diplomacy or shifts in Russian demands underpins trader consensus that a signed peace deal is unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,610,357End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trilateral US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk or long-term security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained on pause since US-Israel operations against Iran in late February, with US officials later describing prior efforts as unfruitful. Russia has repeatedly rejected proposals to freeze the conflict along current lines or resume talks without achieving its stated objectives, while continuing military operations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has signaled openness to compromises and direct engagement, but no breakthrough has occurred amid these persistent gaps. With roughly four months left before 2027, the absence of resumed high-level diplomacy or shifts in Russian demands underpins trader consensus that a signed peace deal is unlikely in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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