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icon for US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?

US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?

icon for US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?

US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?

$46,696 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$46,696 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$43 Vol.

28%

December 31

$0 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The Trump administration has maintained and intensified pressure on Cuba's energy sector through executive actions and designations, with no indications of impending oil sanction relief as of late August 2026.** Since January 2026, Executive Order 14380 declared a national emergency authorizing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, effectively disrupting supplies previously routed from Venezuela. This was followed by EO 14404 in May, which expanded authorities to block non-U.S. parties operating in Cuba's energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors, enabling secondary sanctions risks for foreign entities. The State Department and OFAC have since designated Cuba's state oil company CUPET, exploration firm CEINPET, gas importers, GAESA-linked entities, and others tied to energy trade. On August 20, President Trump extended Trading With the Enemy Act authorities for another year until September 2027, citing U.S. national interest, while additional August designations targeted mining, metals, construction, and related officials. These steps align with a consistent "maximum pressure" approach under Secretary Rubio, responding to Cuba's energy shortages and regime revenue streams rather than signaling easing. Cuba's June economic liberalization reforms have not prompted reciprocal U.S. adjustments. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of diplomatic openings or policy shifts, with the administration continuing targeted designations at regular intervals and no scheduled events pointing to relief. Any reversal would require a major change in bilateral dynamics or executive priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.

An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.

Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.

Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The Trump administration has maintained and intensified pressure on Cuba's energy sector through executive actions and designations, with no indications of impending oil sanction relief as of late August 2026.** Since January 2026, Executive Order 14380 declared a national emergency authorizing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, effectively disrupting supplies previously routed from Venezuela. This was followed by EO 14404 in May, which expanded authorities to block non-U.S. parties operating in Cuba's energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors, enabling secondary sanctions risks for foreign entities. The State Department and OFAC have since designated Cuba's state oil company CUPET, exploration firm CEINPET, gas importers, GAESA-linked entities, and others tied to energy trade. On August 20, President Trump extended Trading With the Enemy Act authorities for another year until September 2027, citing U.S. national interest, while additional August designations targeted mining, metals, construction, and related officials. These steps align with a consistent "maximum pressure" approach under Secretary Rubio, responding to Cuba's energy shortages and regime revenue streams rather than signaling easing. Cuba's June economic liberalization reforms have not prompted reciprocal U.S. adjustments. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of diplomatic openings or policy shifts, with the administration continuing targeted designations at regular intervals and no scheduled events pointing to relief. Any reversal would require a major change in bilateral dynamics or executive priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.

An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.

Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.

Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 31%, followed by "September 30" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?" has generated $46.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?" is "December 31" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.