The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has operated under ordered departure status for non-essential personnel and families since February 2026 amid the Iran conflict and associated security threats, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. Following the June 2026 ceasefire and reduced escalation risks, the Trump administration announced plans on August 25 to begin returning diplomats to the post as early as the following week—the first among several regional embassies—though initial staffing would be capped at 85 percent without family members. Persistent factors include ongoing Israeli military operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, periodic security alerts, and restrictions on embassy staff movement. These developments shape trader assessments of whether conditions will trigger a full or additional evacuation order by any near-term resolution date, balanced against signals of gradual normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
$118,056 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
5%
$118,056 Vol.
December 31
$23,954 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has operated under ordered departure status for non-essential personnel and families since February 2026 amid the Iran conflict and associated security threats, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. Following the June 2026 ceasefire and reduced escalation risks, the Trump administration announced plans on August 25 to begin returning diplomats to the post as early as the following week—the first among several regional embassies—though initial staffing would be capped at 85 percent without family members. Persistent factors include ongoing Israeli military operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, periodic security alerts, and restrictions on embassy staff movement. These developments shape trader assessments of whether conditions will trigger a full or additional evacuation order by any near-term resolution date, balanced against signals of gradual normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$118,056End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has operated under ordered departure status for non-essential personnel and families since February 2026 amid the Iran conflict and associated security threats, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. Following the June 2026 ceasefire and reduced escalation risks, the Trump administration announced plans on August 25 to begin returning diplomats to the post as early as the following week—the first among several regional embassies—though initial staffing would be capped at 85 percent without family members. Persistent factors include ongoing Israeli military operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, periodic security alerts, and restrictions on embassy staff movement. These developments shape trader assessments of whether conditions will trigger a full or additional evacuation order by any near-term resolution date, balanced against signals of gradual normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$118,056End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has operated under ordered departure status for non-essential personnel and families since February 2026 amid the Iran conflict and associated security threats, with the State Department maintaining a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory. Following the June 2026 ceasefire and reduced escalation risks, the Trump administration announced plans on August 25 to begin returning diplomats to the post as early as the following week—the first among several regional embassies—though initial staffing would be capped at 85 percent without family members. Persistent factors include ongoing Israeli military operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs, periodic security alerts, and restrictions on embassy staff movement. These developments shape trader assessments of whether conditions will trigger a full or additional evacuation order by any near-term resolution date, balanced against signals of gradual normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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