Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including Canadian parliamentary petitions against the U.S. envoy and Brazil-U.S. visa disputes, no foreign government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or initiated expulsion proceedings in 2026. Multiple posts remain vacant or filled by chargés following earlier U.S. recalls, which has not triggered reciprocal host-country actions. Traders assign 69% probability to "No" through year-end, reflecting the absence of acute bilateral breakdowns severe enough to override standard diplomatic norms and the preference for lower-level demarches or recalls over full expulsions. Scheduled events like elections or summits could still introduce volatility before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated27% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
27% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including Canadian parliamentary petitions against the U.S. envoy and Brazil-U.S. visa disputes, no foreign government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or initiated expulsion proceedings in 2026. Multiple posts remain vacant or filled by chargés following earlier U.S. recalls, which has not triggered reciprocal host-country actions. Traders assign 69% probability to "No" through year-end, reflecting the absence of acute bilateral breakdowns severe enough to override standard diplomatic norms and the preference for lower-level demarches or recalls over full expulsions. Scheduled events like elections or summits could still introduce volatility before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including Canadian parliamentary petitions against the U.S. envoy and Brazil-U.S. visa disputes, no foreign government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or initiated expulsion proceedings in 2026. Multiple posts remain vacant or filled by chargés following earlier U.S. recalls, which has not triggered reciprocal host-country actions. Traders assign 69% probability to "No" through year-end, reflecting the absence of acute bilateral breakdowns severe enough to override standard diplomatic norms and the preference for lower-level demarches or recalls over full expulsions. Scheduled events like elections or summits could still introduce volatility before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing diplomatic frictions, including Canadian parliamentary petitions against the U.S. envoy and Brazil-U.S. visa disputes, no foreign government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata or initiated expulsion proceedings in 2026. Multiple posts remain vacant or filled by chargés following earlier U.S. recalls, which has not triggered reciprocal host-country actions. Traders assign 69% probability to "No" through year-end, reflecting the absence of acute bilateral breakdowns severe enough to override standard diplomatic norms and the preference for lower-level demarches or recalls over full expulsions. Scheduled events like elections or summits could still introduce volatility before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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