Traders assign a 98% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, multi-month phase centered on the US-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit. This mechanism is gathering public comments on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, while recent Section 301 tariffs on forced labor (12.5%) and planned overcapacity duties (7.5%) restore rates to the 20% ceiling set under the 2025 Busan truce, without resolving underlying issues. The one-year truce itself runs until November 10, with a September 24 summit already scheduled for further discussions. A last-minute comprehensive deal in the next four days would require an abrupt departure from these timelines and established procedures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
2% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 98% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, multi-month phase centered on the US-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit. This mechanism is gathering public comments on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, while recent Section 301 tariffs on forced labor (12.5%) and planned overcapacity duties (7.5%) restore rates to the 20% ceiling set under the 2025 Busan truce, without resolving underlying issues. The one-year truce itself runs until November 10, with a September 24 summit already scheduled for further discussions. A last-minute comprehensive deal in the next four days would require an abrupt departure from these timelines and established procedures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,880End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 98% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, multi-month phase centered on the US-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit. This mechanism is gathering public comments on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, while recent Section 301 tariffs on forced labor (12.5%) and planned overcapacity duties (7.5%) restore rates to the 20% ceiling set under the 2025 Busan truce, without resolving underlying issues. The one-year truce itself runs until November 10, with a September 24 summit already scheduled for further discussions. A last-minute comprehensive deal in the next four days would require an abrupt departure from these timelines and established procedures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$2,880End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, multi-month phase centered on the US-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit. This mechanism is gathering public comments on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, while recent Section 301 tariffs on forced labor (12.5%) and planned overcapacity duties (7.5%) restore rates to the 20% ceiling set under the 2025 Busan truce, without resolving underlying issues. The one-year truce itself runs until November 10, with a September 24 summit already scheduled for further discussions. A last-minute comprehensive deal in the next four days would require an abrupt departure from these timelines and established procedures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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