**Recent Pentagon updates to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list and a wave of legal challenges are the main drivers shaping trader views on potential removals by June 2027.** The June 2026 revision added roughly 65 entities—including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and WuXi AppTec—while dropping 10 others that no longer operate directly or indirectly in the United States, expanding the total to 188. Companies such as CXMT (which filed suit in late August 2026), Alibaba, and YMTC are actively contesting designations through federal courts, arguing arbitrary application of military-civil fusion criteria and due-process violations. Past precedent shows removals can occur via successful litigation, name changes, or confirmed lack of U.S. operations. The next annual Pentagon review and any resolution of ongoing suits represent the clearest near-term catalysts before the 2027 contracting restrictions tighten.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$196,359 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
YMTC
18%
CATL
18%
Hesai
18%
Tencent
17%
DJI
17%
Baidu
16%
CXMT
15%
BYD
14%
Unitree
14%
Alibaba
8%
$196,359 Vol.
YMTC
$21,749 Vol.
18%
CATL
$28,607 Vol.
18%
Hesai
$13,102 Vol.
18%
Tencent
$20,653 Vol.
17%
DJI
$15,831 Vol.
17%
Baidu
$21,133 Vol.
16%
CXMT
$8,391 Vol.
15%
BYD
$21,579 Vol.
14%
Unitree
$18,649 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$26,720 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).**Recent Pentagon updates to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list and a wave of legal challenges are the main drivers shaping trader views on potential removals by June 2027.** The June 2026 revision added roughly 65 entities—including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and WuXi AppTec—while dropping 10 others that no longer operate directly or indirectly in the United States, expanding the total to 188. Companies such as CXMT (which filed suit in late August 2026), Alibaba, and YMTC are actively contesting designations through federal courts, arguing arbitrary application of military-civil fusion criteria and due-process violations. Past precedent shows removals can occur via successful litigation, name changes, or confirmed lack of U.S. operations. The next annual Pentagon review and any resolution of ongoing suits represent the clearest near-term catalysts before the 2027 contracting restrictions tighten.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$196,359End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).**Recent Pentagon updates to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list and a wave of legal challenges are the main drivers shaping trader views on potential removals by June 2027.** The June 2026 revision added roughly 65 entities—including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and WuXi AppTec—while dropping 10 others that no longer operate directly or indirectly in the United States, expanding the total to 188. Companies such as CXMT (which filed suit in late August 2026), Alibaba, and YMTC are actively contesting designations through federal courts, arguing arbitrary application of military-civil fusion criteria and due-process violations. Past precedent shows removals can occur via successful litigation, name changes, or confirmed lack of U.S. operations. The next annual Pentagon review and any resolution of ongoing suits represent the clearest near-term catalysts before the 2027 contracting restrictions tighten.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Volume
$196,359End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Pentagon updates to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list and a wave of legal challenges are the main drivers shaping trader views on potential removals by June 2027.** The June 2026 revision added roughly 65 entities—including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and WuXi AppTec—while dropping 10 others that no longer operate directly or indirectly in the United States, expanding the total to 188. Companies such as CXMT (which filed suit in late August 2026), Alibaba, and YMTC are actively contesting designations through federal courts, arguing arbitrary application of military-civil fusion criteria and due-process violations. Past precedent shows removals can occur via successful litigation, name changes, or confirmed lack of U.S. operations. The next annual Pentagon review and any resolution of ongoing suits represent the clearest near-term catalysts before the 2027 contracting restrictions tighten.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions