Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, primarily because no observable large-scale amphibious buildup, troop concentrations, or logistical preparations have materialized in recent months despite sustained gray-zone activity. Chinese military aircraft, naval vessels, and coast guard patrols have continued routine operations around the island, including median-line crossings and research missions, but these fall far short of the months-long mobilization required for a cross-strait assault. Taiwan has responded with enhanced combat readiness drills and defense budgeting, while Beijing reiterates unification goals without issuing ultimatums or altering force posture in ways that signal imminent kinetic action. With the resolution window closing in roughly one month and historical precedents showing invasions demand visible precursors, the market consensus reflects structural barriers to rapid escalation. Late diplomatic crises or intelligence surprises remain theoretically possible but would require unprecedented acceleration.