Heightened tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026, continue to shape maritime security dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade. Persistent attacks on commercial vessels, a US naval blockade, and Iranian restrictions on routes have driven Brent crude averages near $93 per barrel since March, with importers facing over $330 billion in added fossil fuel costs through August. These disruptions elevate tanker insurance premiums, redirect flows via alternative corridors, and sustain elevated crack spreads amid depleted global inventories. Trader focus centers on naval transits as potential signals of de-escalation or enforcement of freedom of navigation, particularly with Iran-Oman talks advancing an interim reopening framework and the August 31 deadline approaching. Recent US statements on mine clearance and sanctions underscore the link between military positioning and energy market stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
$269,995 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
US
3%
Netherlands
1%
Australia
1%
Greece
1%
UK
1%
Italy
1%
France
1%
Germany
<1%
$269,995 Vol.
US
$43,713 Vol.
3%
Netherlands
$45,490 Vol.
1%
Australia
$1,285 Vol.
1%
Greece
$3,907 Vol.
1%
UK
$21,580 Vol.
1%
Italy
$6,203 Vol.
1%
France
$58,104 Vol.
1%
Germany
$89,713 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026, continue to shape maritime security dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade. Persistent attacks on commercial vessels, a US naval blockade, and Iranian restrictions on routes have driven Brent crude averages near $93 per barrel since March, with importers facing over $330 billion in added fossil fuel costs through August. These disruptions elevate tanker insurance premiums, redirect flows via alternative corridors, and sustain elevated crack spreads amid depleted global inventories. Trader focus centers on naval transits as potential signals of de-escalation or enforcement of freedom of navigation, particularly with Iran-Oman talks advancing an interim reopening framework and the August 31 deadline approaching. Recent US statements on mine clearance and sanctions underscore the link between military positioning and energy market stabilization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$269,995End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026, continue to shape maritime security dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade. Persistent attacks on commercial vessels, a US naval blockade, and Iranian restrictions on routes have driven Brent crude averages near $93 per barrel since March, with importers facing over $330 billion in added fossil fuel costs through August. These disruptions elevate tanker insurance premiums, redirect flows via alternative corridors, and sustain elevated crack spreads amid depleted global inventories. Trader focus centers on naval transits as potential signals of de-escalation or enforcement of freedom of navigation, particularly with Iran-Oman talks advancing an interim reopening framework and the August 31 deadline approaching. Recent US statements on mine clearance and sanctions underscore the link between military positioning and energy market stabilization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$269,995End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026, continue to shape maritime security dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade. Persistent attacks on commercial vessels, a US naval blockade, and Iranian restrictions on routes have driven Brent crude averages near $93 per barrel since March, with importers facing over $330 billion in added fossil fuel costs through August. These disruptions elevate tanker insurance premiums, redirect flows via alternative corridors, and sustain elevated crack spreads amid depleted global inventories. Trader focus centers on naval transits as potential signals of de-escalation or enforcement of freedom of navigation, particularly with Iran-Oman talks advancing an interim reopening framework and the August 31 deadline approaching. Recent US statements on mine clearance and sanctions underscore the link between military positioning and energy market stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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