**Traders assign a 72% probability that Missouri Amendment 3 will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot, reflecting skepticism that bundling an abortion restriction with a permanent constitutional ban on gender transition procedures for minors will overcome voter resistance.** The 2024 voter-approved Amendment 3 established a constitutional right to abortion up to viability, narrowly defeating a near-total statutory ban by 51.6%–48.4%. Lawmakers responded by referring a new legislatively referred Amendment 3 that would repeal those protections, limit abortions to narrow exceptions (medical emergency, fetal anomaly, rape or incest before 12 weeks), and embed the existing statutory restrictions on puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries for minors into the constitution without the 2027 sunset. Missouri courts have meanwhile struck down multiple pre-existing abortion regulations, expanding medication abortion access, while the Supreme Court upheld the SAFE Act’s gender-care limits in early 2026. The bundling tactic has drawn criticism as an attempt to leverage support for one issue to advance the other, but recent polling shows only modest combined support around 47%–40%. With the measure facing the same electorate that protected reproductive rights two years earlier and no major intervening shifts in voter sentiment, traders view passage as unlikely absent a substantial late campaign development.