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Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

icon for Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Republican control of the House and unified GOP opposition to restricting aid have kept such measures off the floor.** A July 2026 Massie amendment to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing for Israel failed 314-104 despite support from roughly half of voting Democrats, reflecting entrenched party-line resistance and leadership reluctance to advance similar provisions. The House has instead advanced defense authorizations including hundreds of millions for U.S.-Israel cooperative programs. With only weeks remaining before the September 30 deadline and no new restrictive legislation reported or scheduled, traders see negligible prospects for passage.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,972
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Republican control of the House and unified GOP opposition to restricting aid have kept such measures off the floor.** A July 2026 Massie amendment to eliminate $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing for Israel failed 314-104 despite support from roughly half of voting Democrats, reflecting entrenched party-line resistance and leadership reluctance to advance similar provisions. The House has instead advanced defense authorizations including hundreds of millions for U.S.-Israel cooperative programs. With only weeks remaining before the September 30 deadline and no new restrictive legislation reported or scheduled, traders see negligible prospects for passage.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,972
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.