Russian forces captured Myrnohrad in early 2026 during the Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated control over most of the city, using it as a base for artillery, drones, and further advances in Donetsk Oblast. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units remain limited to defensive operations on northern outskirts or adjacent areas such as Rodynske, with no verified re-entry into the city proper according to ISW mapping. Russian pressure continues in the broader Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Kostiantynivka axis, while Ukrainian command has prioritized headquarters restructuring and reinforcements under the 3rd Army Corps to stabilize the Donetsk front. Recent Russian gains near Sloviansk and persistent glide-bomb and drone strikes have further strained Ukrainian logistics without shifting momentum back toward Myrnohrad. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with resolution hinging on whether Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere generate enough force to contest the city before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?
$120,037 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$120,037 Vol.
December 31
$107,297 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Myrnohrad in early 2026 during the Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated control over most of the city, using it as a base for artillery, drones, and further advances in Donetsk Oblast. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units remain limited to defensive operations on northern outskirts or adjacent areas such as Rodynske, with no verified re-entry into the city proper according to ISW mapping. Russian pressure continues in the broader Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Kostiantynivka axis, while Ukrainian command has prioritized headquarters restructuring and reinforcements under the 3rd Army Corps to stabilize the Donetsk front. Recent Russian gains near Sloviansk and persistent glide-bomb and drone strikes have further strained Ukrainian logistics without shifting momentum back toward Myrnohrad. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with resolution hinging on whether Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere generate enough force to contest the city before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$120,037End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Myrnohrad in early 2026 during the Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated control over most of the city, using it as a base for artillery, drones, and further advances in Donetsk Oblast. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units remain limited to defensive operations on northern outskirts or adjacent areas such as Rodynske, with no verified re-entry into the city proper according to ISW mapping. Russian pressure continues in the broader Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Kostiantynivka axis, while Ukrainian command has prioritized headquarters restructuring and reinforcements under the 3rd Army Corps to stabilize the Donetsk front. Recent Russian gains near Sloviansk and persistent glide-bomb and drone strikes have further strained Ukrainian logistics without shifting momentum back toward Myrnohrad. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with resolution hinging on whether Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere generate enough force to contest the city before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$120,037End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured Myrnohrad in early 2026 during the Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated control over most of the city, using it as a base for artillery, drones, and further advances in Donetsk Oblast. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units remain limited to defensive operations on northern outskirts or adjacent areas such as Rodynske, with no verified re-entry into the city proper according to ISW mapping. Russian pressure continues in the broader Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Kostiantynivka axis, while Ukrainian command has prioritized headquarters restructuring and reinforcements under the 3rd Army Corps to stabilize the Donetsk front. Recent Russian gains near Sloviansk and persistent glide-bomb and drone strikes have further strained Ukrainian logistics without shifting momentum back toward Myrnohrad. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions, with resolution hinging on whether Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere generate enough force to contest the city before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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