Russian forces captured most of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast during the 2025–2026 Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated positions, moved commanders into the city, and used it as a base for further advances while repelling Ukrainian attempts to regain ground. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units continue localized operations and have repelled hundreds of Russian assaults across the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis in recent weeks, yet independent mapping shows no verified Ukrainian recapture of territory inside the city itself. Russia maintains pressure aimed at completing control of Donetsk Oblast by year-end, while Ukrainian command has reinforced the sector with new formations under experienced corps leaders but faces resource constraints across multiple fronts. Trader consensus on re-entry by December 31, 2026, remains low because sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives sufficient to reverse recent Russian gains have not materialized, though any shift in force allocation or successful strikes degrading Russian logistics could alter momentum within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?
$120,037 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$120,037 Vol.
December 31
$107,297 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured most of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast during the 2025–2026 Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated positions, moved commanders into the city, and used it as a base for further advances while repelling Ukrainian attempts to regain ground. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units continue localized operations and have repelled hundreds of Russian assaults across the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis in recent weeks, yet independent mapping shows no verified Ukrainian recapture of territory inside the city itself. Russia maintains pressure aimed at completing control of Donetsk Oblast by year-end, while Ukrainian command has reinforced the sector with new formations under experienced corps leaders but faces resource constraints across multiple fronts. Trader consensus on re-entry by December 31, 2026, remains low because sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives sufficient to reverse recent Russian gains have not materialized, though any shift in force allocation or successful strikes degrading Russian logistics could alter momentum within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$120,037End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured most of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast during the 2025–2026 Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated positions, moved commanders into the city, and used it as a base for further advances while repelling Ukrainian attempts to regain ground. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units continue localized operations and have repelled hundreds of Russian assaults across the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis in recent weeks, yet independent mapping shows no verified Ukrainian recapture of territory inside the city itself. Russia maintains pressure aimed at completing control of Donetsk Oblast by year-end, while Ukrainian command has reinforced the sector with new formations under experienced corps leaders but faces resource constraints across multiple fronts. Trader consensus on re-entry by December 31, 2026, remains low because sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives sufficient to reverse recent Russian gains have not materialized, though any shift in force allocation or successful strikes degrading Russian logistics could alter momentum within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$120,037End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured most of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast during the 2025–2026 Pokrovsk offensive and have since consolidated positions, moved commanders into the city, and used it as a base for further advances while repelling Ukrainian attempts to regain ground. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian units continue localized operations and have repelled hundreds of Russian assaults across the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis in recent weeks, yet independent mapping shows no verified Ukrainian recapture of territory inside the city itself. Russia maintains pressure aimed at completing control of Donetsk Oblast by year-end, while Ukrainian command has reinforced the sector with new formations under experienced corps leaders but faces resource constraints across multiple fronts. Trader consensus on re-entry by December 31, 2026, remains low because sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives sufficient to reverse recent Russian gains have not materialized, though any shift in force allocation or successful strikes degrading Russian logistics could alter momentum within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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