Wisconsin's longstanding statute, dating to 1849 and codified in Wis. Stat. § 6.03(2), disqualifies any elector who has bet or wagered on an election outcome from voting in that contest, with potential Class I felony exposure under related provisions. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reinforced this in July 2026 guidance, explicitly warning voters about prediction markets and noting that successful administrative challenges could prevent ballot counting. Traders assign a 95.9% probability that no such disenfranchisement will occur before the November 2, 2026 resolution deadline because enforcement depends on third-party challenges rather than active monitoring, no disqualifications have been publicly announced to date, and constitutional questions around additional voting restrictions beyond felony convictions or incompetency remain unresolved. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a publicized successful ballot challenge or state announcement of enforcement action tied to verifiable betting activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin's longstanding statute, dating to 1849 and codified in Wis. Stat. § 6.03(2), disqualifies any elector who has bet or wagered on an election outcome from voting in that contest, with potential Class I felony exposure under related provisions. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reinforced this in July 2026 guidance, explicitly warning voters about prediction markets and noting that successful administrative challenges could prevent ballot counting. Traders assign a 95.9% probability that no such disenfranchisement will occur before the November 2, 2026 resolution deadline because enforcement depends on third-party challenges rather than active monitoring, no disqualifications have been publicly announced to date, and constitutional questions around additional voting restrictions beyond felony convictions or incompetency remain unresolved. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a publicized successful ballot challenge or state announcement of enforcement action tied to verifiable betting activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$2,020End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin's longstanding statute, dating to 1849 and codified in Wis. Stat. § 6.03(2), disqualifies any elector who has bet or wagered on an election outcome from voting in that contest, with potential Class I felony exposure under related provisions. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reinforced this in July 2026 guidance, explicitly warning voters about prediction markets and noting that successful administrative challenges could prevent ballot counting. Traders assign a 95.9% probability that no such disenfranchisement will occur before the November 2, 2026 resolution deadline because enforcement depends on third-party challenges rather than active monitoring, no disqualifications have been publicly announced to date, and constitutional questions around additional voting restrictions beyond felony convictions or incompetency remain unresolved. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a publicized successful ballot challenge or state announcement of enforcement action tied to verifiable betting activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,020End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wisconsin's longstanding statute, dating to 1849 and codified in Wis. Stat. § 6.03(2), disqualifies any elector who has bet or wagered on an election outcome from voting in that contest, with potential Class I felony exposure under related provisions. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reinforced this in July 2026 guidance, explicitly warning voters about prediction markets and noting that successful administrative challenges could prevent ballot counting. Traders assign a 95.9% probability that no such disenfranchisement will occur before the November 2, 2026 resolution deadline because enforcement depends on third-party challenges rather than active monitoring, no disqualifications have been publicly announced to date, and constitutional questions around additional voting restrictions beyond felony convictions or incompetency remain unresolved. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a publicized successful ballot challenge or state announcement of enforcement action tied to verifiable betting activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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