Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5, Berkeley Earth, and NASA GISS place 2026 monthly global surface air temperatures at 1.45–1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with July already at or above 1.47 °C. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.6 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, is amplifying sea-surface temperatures that reached a record 21.1 °C in August. These conditions, layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend, drive the overwhelming market-implied probability (>1.29 °C at 99.5 %). Only an abrupt reversal in the El Niño or major revisions to agency analyses could realistically shift the outcome below that threshold before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,093 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,778 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5, Berkeley Earth, and NASA GISS place 2026 monthly global surface air temperatures at 1.45–1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with July already at or above 1.47 °C. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.6 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, is amplifying sea-surface temperatures that reached a record 21.1 °C in August. These conditions, layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend, drive the overwhelming market-implied probability (>1.29 °C at 99.5 %). Only an abrupt reversal in the El Niño or major revisions to agency analyses could realistically shift the outcome below that threshold before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5, Berkeley Earth, and NASA GISS place 2026 monthly global surface air temperatures at 1.45–1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with July already at or above 1.47 °C. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.6 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, is amplifying sea-surface temperatures that reached a record 21.1 °C in August. These conditions, layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend, drive the overwhelming market-implied probability (>1.29 °C at 99.5 %). Only an abrupt reversal in the El Niño or major revisions to agency analyses could realistically shift the outcome below that threshold before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5, Berkeley Earth, and NASA GISS place 2026 monthly global surface air temperatures at 1.45–1.56 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with July already at or above 1.47 °C. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.6 °C and multi-model forecasts peaking near +4 °C by late 2026, is amplifying sea-surface temperatures that reached a record 21.1 °C in August. These conditions, layered on the long-term anthropogenic trend, drive the overwhelming market-implied probability (>1.29 °C at 99.5 %). Only an abrupt reversal in the El Niño or major revisions to agency analyses could realistically shift the outcome below that threshold before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions