**Mark Lamb (R), former Pinal County sheriff with a Trump endorsement, faces Elizabeth Lee (D), the Democratic primary winner, in Arizona’s 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026.** The open seat, previously held by Andy Biggs, sits in a conservative East Valley district covering parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties with an R+10 partisan voting index and a recent history of 20-point Republican margins. The closely matched 50% trader prices on the top contenders reflect uncertainty about the final margin in this solidly Republican territory. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with models projecting roughly 13–14 point GOP advantages on average, though actual results will depend on turnout among suburban voters and any late-cycle shifts in the national environment. Primary results from July 21 showed Lamb defeating Daniel Keenan 59–41% and Lee topping her field 66–34%, confirming the nominees without altering the district’s underlying lean. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data so far have kept margin buckets dispersed, with higher probabilities on Republican leads of 10–25 points aligning with historical patterns and structural advantages. Upcoming events that could create separation include candidate debates, new polling releases, or endorsements that clarify turnout dynamics. Late developments such as national economic signals or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that could compress or expand the margin before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 5-10% 37%
Republican 15-20% 36%
Republican 0-5% 36%
Republican 25%+ 31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 25%+
31%
Republican 20-25%
31%
Republican 15-20%
36%
Republican 10-15%
44%
Republican 5-10%
37%
Republican 0-5%
36%
Democrat 0-5%
7%
Democrat 5%+
8%
Republican 5-10% 37%
Republican 15-20% 36%
Republican 0-5% 36%
Republican 25%+ 31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 25%+
$20 Vol.
31%
Republican 20-25%
$20 Vol.
31%
Republican 15-20%
$20 Vol.
36%
Republican 10-15%
$23 Vol.
44%
Republican 5-10%
$20 Vol.
37%
Republican 0-5%
$20 Vol.
36%
Democrat 0-5%
$40 Vol.
7%
Democrat 5%+
$59 Vol.
8%
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Mark Lamb (R), former Pinal County sheriff with a Trump endorsement, faces Elizabeth Lee (D), the Democratic primary winner, in Arizona’s 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026.** The open seat, previously held by Andy Biggs, sits in a conservative East Valley district covering parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties with an R+10 partisan voting index and a recent history of 20-point Republican margins.
The closely matched 50% trader prices on the top contenders reflect uncertainty about the final margin in this solidly Republican territory. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with models projecting roughly 13–14 point GOP advantages on average, though actual results will depend on turnout among suburban voters and any late-cycle shifts in the national environment.
Primary results from July 21 showed Lamb defeating Daniel Keenan 59–41% and Lee topping her field 66–34%, confirming the nominees without altering the district’s underlying lean. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data so far have kept margin buckets dispersed, with higher probabilities on Republican leads of 10–25 points aligning with historical patterns and structural advantages.
Upcoming events that could create separation include candidate debates, new polling releases, or endorsements that clarify turnout dynamics. Late developments such as national economic signals or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that could compress or expand the margin before Election Day.
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
Volume
$223End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Mark Lamb (R), former Pinal County sheriff with a Trump endorsement, faces Elizabeth Lee (D), the Democratic primary winner, in Arizona’s 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026.** The open seat, previously held by Andy Biggs, sits in a conservative East Valley district covering parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties with an R+10 partisan voting index and a recent history of 20-point Republican margins.
The closely matched 50% trader prices on the top contenders reflect uncertainty about the final margin in this solidly Republican territory. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with models projecting roughly 13–14 point GOP advantages on average, though actual results will depend on turnout among suburban voters and any late-cycle shifts in the national environment.
Primary results from July 21 showed Lamb defeating Daniel Keenan 59–41% and Lee topping her field 66–34%, confirming the nominees without altering the district’s underlying lean. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data so far have kept margin buckets dispersed, with higher probabilities on Republican leads of 10–25 points aligning with historical patterns and structural advantages.
Upcoming events that could create separation include candidate debates, new polling releases, or endorsements that clarify turnout dynamics. Late developments such as national economic signals or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that could compress or expand the margin before Election Day.
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$223End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Mark Lamb (R), former Pinal County sheriff with a Trump endorsement, faces Elizabeth Lee (D), the Democratic primary winner, in Arizona’s 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026.** The open seat, previously held by Andy Biggs, sits in a conservative East Valley district covering parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties with an R+10 partisan voting index and a recent history of 20-point Republican margins. The closely matched 50% trader prices on the top contenders reflect uncertainty about the final margin in this solidly Republican territory. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with models projecting roughly 13–14 point GOP advantages on average, though actual results will depend on turnout among suburban voters and any late-cycle shifts in the national environment. Primary results from July 21 showed Lamb defeating Daniel Keenan 59–41% and Lee topping her field 66–34%, confirming the nominees without altering the district’s underlying lean. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data so far have kept margin buckets dispersed, with higher probabilities on Republican leads of 10–25 points aligning with historical patterns and structural advantages. Upcoming events that could create separation include candidate debates, new polling releases, or endorsements that clarify turnout dynamics. Late developments such as national economic signals or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that could compress or expand the margin before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions