**The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% through the first seven months of 2026, most recently on July 15, underpins the 75% market-implied probability against a hike this year.** In its July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected GDP growth of 0.7% for 2026 rising to 1.8% in 2027–28 as slack is gradually absorbed, while headline CPI—elevated near 3% from oil-price effects—is expected to ease toward the 2% target by early 2027, assuming oil stabilizes near $70–75 per barrel. Core measures remain near target with limited spillovers. Major banks including TD, RBC, and BMO forecast the policy rate staying unchanged through December 2026, citing excess supply, contained underlying inflation, and headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty. The next decision on September 2 is widely expected to maintain the status quo, with the first 25-basis-point hike priced for 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
30% chance
$19,483 Vol.
$19,483 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
30% chance
$19,483 Vol.
$19,483 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% through the first seven months of 2026, most recently on July 15, underpins the 75% market-implied probability against a hike this year.** In its July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected GDP growth of 0.7% for 2026 rising to 1.8% in 2027–28 as slack is gradually absorbed, while headline CPI—elevated near 3% from oil-price effects—is expected to ease toward the 2% target by early 2027, assuming oil stabilizes near $70–75 per barrel. Core measures remain near target with limited spillovers. Major banks including TD, RBC, and BMO forecast the policy rate staying unchanged through December 2026, citing excess supply, contained underlying inflation, and headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty. The next decision on September 2 is widely expected to maintain the status quo, with the first 25-basis-point hike priced for 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$19,483End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% through the first seven months of 2026, most recently on July 15, underpins the 75% market-implied probability against a hike this year.** In its July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected GDP growth of 0.7% for 2026 rising to 1.8% in 2027–28 as slack is gradually absorbed, while headline CPI—elevated near 3% from oil-price effects—is expected to ease toward the 2% target by early 2027, assuming oil stabilizes near $70–75 per barrel. Core measures remain near target with limited spillovers. Major banks including TD, RBC, and BMO forecast the policy rate staying unchanged through December 2026, citing excess supply, contained underlying inflation, and headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty. The next decision on September 2 is widely expected to maintain the status quo, with the first 25-basis-point hike priced for 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,483End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% through the first seven months of 2026, most recently on July 15, underpins the 75% market-implied probability against a hike this year.** In its July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected GDP growth of 0.7% for 2026 rising to 1.8% in 2027–28 as slack is gradually absorbed, while headline CPI—elevated near 3% from oil-price effects—is expected to ease toward the 2% target by early 2027, assuming oil stabilizes near $70–75 per barrel. Core measures remain near target with limited spillovers. Major banks including TD, RBC, and BMO forecast the policy rate staying unchanged through December 2026, citing excess supply, contained underlying inflation, and headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty. The next decision on September 2 is widely expected to maintain the status quo, with the first 25-basis-point hike priced for 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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