California's 6th congressional district, centered in the Sacramento region, features a general election matchup between Democrat Richard Pan and No Party Preference incumbent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's boundaries to favor Democratic performance, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Kiley and Pan advancing narrowly ahead of other candidates, confirmed this partisan tilt. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent due to the district's underlying voter composition and limited crossover appeal for the independent incumbent. A Republican victory would require unusually high turnout shifts or late developments that override the structural Democratic advantage in this battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,284 Vol.
$49,284 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,284 Vol.
$49,284 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,041 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,243 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, centered in the Sacramento region, features a general election matchup between Democrat Richard Pan and No Party Preference incumbent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's boundaries to favor Democratic performance, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Kiley and Pan advancing narrowly ahead of other candidates, confirmed this partisan tilt. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent due to the district's underlying voter composition and limited crossover appeal for the independent incumbent. A Republican victory would require unusually high turnout shifts or late developments that override the structural Democratic advantage in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$49,284End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, centered in the Sacramento region, features a general election matchup between Democrat Richard Pan and No Party Preference incumbent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's boundaries to favor Democratic performance, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Kiley and Pan advancing narrowly ahead of other candidates, confirmed this partisan tilt. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent due to the district's underlying voter composition and limited crossover appeal for the independent incumbent. A Republican victory would require unusually high turnout shifts or late developments that override the structural Democratic advantage in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,284End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district, centered in the Sacramento region, features a general election matchup between Democrat Richard Pan and No Party Preference incumbent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's boundaries to favor Democratic performance, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Kiley and Pan advancing narrowly ahead of other candidates, confirmed this partisan tilt. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent due to the district's underlying voter composition and limited crossover appeal for the independent incumbent. A Republican victory would require unusually high turnout shifts or late developments that override the structural Democratic advantage in this battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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